广发期货《农产品》日报-20250516

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given content. Core Views Oils and Fats - For palm oil, there is a risk of price decline and adjustment due to potential increases in production and inventory. In China, short - term prices may fluctuate after breaking through 8200 yuan, with a possibility of reaching 8300 yuan [1]. - For soybean oil, if the US proposal to extend the 45Z clean fuel tax credit policy is passed, the industrial use of soybean oil in bio - fuel production will rise significantly. In the short - term, there is an upward trend, but domestic inventory increase may drag down the market [1]. Sugar - Short - term raw sugar is expected to fluctuate between 17 - 20 cents per pound. The domestic sugar market has sufficient supply and strong sales. Sugar prices are expected to remain stable in the short - term, with a reference range of 5800 - 5950 yuan [3]. Cotton - The downstream cotton industry is gradually weakening, but the pressure on finished product inventory is still small. New cotton growth is good, and supply is expected to be abundant. Short - term cotton prices may fluctuate in a range, with attention on the 13500 - 13700 yuan per ton resistance level [4]. Eggs - The supply of eggs is generally sufficient, and demand is weak. Egg prices are expected to decline slightly and then stabilize this week [6]. Meal - Due to uncertainties in US biodiesel blending targets and abundant supply from Brazil, there is no significant positive support for the meal market. Domestic supply is recovering, and attention should be paid to the performance of soybean meal around 2900 yuan [9]. Corn - In the short - term, the corn market will trade steadily with a sideways trend. In the long - term, supply tightening and increased demand will support price increases. It is recommended to buy on dips during price corrections [11]. Pork - The spot price of pork is stable, and the supply - demand relationship has little change. Pig prices are expected to remain in a volatile pattern, with attention on the performance of secondary fattening pig sales [15][16]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - Prices: From February 15th to May 14th, the prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all showed different degrees of decline, with the exception of some basis and spread changes [1]. - Policies and Reports: The US House of Representatives' proposed draft to extend the 45Z clean fuel tax credit policy may increase the industrial use of soybean oil. The latest USDA monthly report shows the proportion of US soybean oil industrial use in total demand [1]. Sugar - Market Data: Futures and spot prices of sugar showed different trends. The production and sales of sugar increased year - on - year, and the inventory decreased. The import of sugar increased significantly [3]. - Industry News: The sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased in the second half of April, but the 25/26 sugar - cane crushing season is still expected to be a bumper harvest [3]. Cotton - Market Data: Futures and spot prices of cotton changed slightly. The commercial inventory decreased, and the industrial inventory remained stable. The export of textile products showed different trends [4]. - Industry Situation: The downstream industry is gradually weakening, and new cotton growth is good, with an expected increase in planting area [4]. Eggs - Prices and Spreads: Egg futures prices and related spreads changed slightly. Egg - laying chick prices remained stable, while the prices of culled chickens and feed - to - egg ratios increased slightly. The breeding profit improved [6]. Meal - Prices and Spreads: The prices of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybeans showed different trends. Various spreads and oil - meal ratios also changed [9]. - Industry Situation: Uncertainty in US biodiesel policies and abundant supply from Brazil have put pressure on the meal market. Domestic supply is recovering, and demand is weak [9]. Corn - Market Data: Corn and corn starch futures and spot prices changed slightly. The basis, spreads, and trade profits showed different trends. The inventory and vehicle numbers at deep - processing plants also changed [11]. - Industry Situation: The supply of corn is gradually concentrated in traders. The downstream deep - processing industry is loss - making, and the substitution of wheat limits price increases. In the long - term, supply tightening and increased demand will support prices [11]. Pork - Market Data: Futures prices of pork decreased, while the trading volume increased. Spot prices remained stable, and various indicators such as slaughter volume, piglet prices, and breeding profits changed slightly [15]. - Industry Situation: The supply - demand relationship of pork is stable, with pressure on fat pigs and weak demand. The 09 contract is driven by funds, but the upward and downward momentum is not strong [15][16].