Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The BR2507 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,800 - 12,700 in the short - term [7] - Recently, the price of raw material butadiene has been rising due to strong demand and unexpected shutdown of some plants, significantly increasing the production cost of butadiene rubber. Driven by macro - positive news, the spot market price has strengthened, and the inventories of producers and traders have decreased to varying degrees. However, some private butadiene rubber plants are expected to restart, increasing the supply. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises has increased significantly this week, but the overall shipment is slow, and the inventory continues to grow [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - on - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The BR2507 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,800 - 12,700 in the short - term [7] - Market review: The spot price of domestic butadiene rubber in the market soared this week, with the ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber of mainstream sales companies increasing by 800 - 1,000 yuan/ton. As of May 15, 2025, the mainstream ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber in China was 12,700 - 12,800 yuan/ton [8] - Market outlook: The production cost of butadiene rubber has increased significantly. Although the inventories of producers and traders have decreased, some private plants are expected to restart. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises has increased, but the shipment is slow and the inventory is rising [8] 3.2. Futures Market - Futures price: The price of the main contract of synthetic rubber futures closed higher this week, with a weekly increase of 5.93% [12] - Position analysis: No specific content provided other than the title - Inter - delivery spread: As of May 16, the 6 - 7 spread of butadiene rubber was - 75 [19] - Futures warehouse receipts: As of May 16, the butadiene rubber warehouse receipts were 6,980 tons, a decrease of 290 tons from last week [22] 3.3. Spot Market - Spot price: As of May 15, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 12,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 850 yuan/ton from last week [27] - Basis: As of May 15, the basis of butadiene rubber was 290 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton from last week [27] 3.4. Upstream Situation - Naphtha and ethylene prices: As of May 14, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 590 US dollars/ton, an increase of 36 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 780 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars/ton from last week [30] - Butadiene capacity utilization and port inventory: As of May 16, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 68.02%, a decrease of 1.33% from last week; the port inventory was 30,870 tons, a decrease of 6,030 tons from last week [34] 3.5. Industry Situation - Production and capacity utilization: In April 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber production was 121,500 tons, a decrease of 6,800 tons from the previous month. As of May 15, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic butadiene rubber was 79.2%, an increase of 4.5% from last week [37] - Production profit: As of May 15, the domestic butadiene rubber production profit was - 1,233 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,060 yuan/ton from last week [40] - Inventory: As of May 14, the domestic butadiene rubber social inventory was 32,200 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons from last week. As of May 16, the producer inventory was 26,650 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from last week; the trader inventory was 5,470 tons, a decrease of 430 tons from last week [44] 3.6. Downstream Situation - Tire capacity utilization: As of May 15, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.21%, a month - on - month increase of 24.50 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.98 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 59.88%, a month - on - month increase of 18.19 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.40 percentage points [47] - Tire export: In March 2025, China's tire export volume was 750,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 45.39% and a year - on - year increase of 9.94%. From January to March, the cumulative tire export volume was 1,948,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.97% [50]
合成橡胶市场周报-20250516
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-05-16 09:16