豆类市场周报-20250516

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The domestic soybean market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with prices showing certain resilience and remaining relatively firm. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach [6]. - The market focus for soybeans is on Sino - US trade relations and North American planting season weather. The CBOT soybean futures price is expected to experience intensified fluctuations in the short term due to a mix of positive and negative factors [7]. - With an increase in soybean arrivals and high - level operation of oil mills, the supply of soybean meal is expected to increase, and it is likely to operate weakly with a short - selling strategy recommended when prices are high [8]. - The supply of soybean oil is also expected to increase, and it is expected to operate weakly in the short term. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [9]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary - Soybean No. 1: This week, the main 2507 contract rose by 0.36% to 4168 yuan/ton. The market is in a weak supply - demand pattern, and prices are relatively firm. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [6]. - Soybean No. 2: The main 2509 contract fell by 0.28% to 3520 yuan/ton. The market is influenced by Sino - US trade relations and weather, and the CBOT soybean futures price is expected to fluctuate [7]. - Soybean Meal: The main 2509 contract remained flat at 2899 yuan/ton. Supply is expected to increase, and it is likely to operate weakly. A short - selling strategy is recommended when prices are high [8]. - Soybean Oil: The main 2509 contract fell by 0.33% to 7754 yuan/ton. Supply is expected to increase, and it is expected to operate weakly. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [9]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - Price Changes: Soybean No. 1 rose, soybean meal remained flat, and soybean oil fell this week [13][19][25]. - Spread Changes: The 9 - 1 spreads of soybean meal and soybean oil both decreased [31][36]. - Net Position and Warehouse Receipt Changes: The net position of soybean No. 1 decreased, and its warehouse receipts increased; the net position of soybean meal increased, and its warehouse receipts increased; the net position of soybean oil decreased, and its warehouse receipts increased [43][47][55]. Spot Market - Price and Basis Changes: The spot price of domestic soybeans remained flat, and the basis decreased; the spot price of soybean meal fell, and the basis decreased; the spot price of soybean oil declined, and the basis decreased [62][68][72]. - Imported Soybean Indicators: The import premium of imported soybeans changed, and the arrival cost of imported soybeans increased [76][80]. 3. Industry Situation Weather - North American Weather: The drought situation in the US soybean - producing areas has deepened compared with last week and is worse than the same period last year [84]. - US Soybean Weather: In the 6 - 10 - day outlook, the temperature in the main US soybean - producing states is close to normal, and rainfall is lower than normal [88]. Upstream - Supply - Side Information: The expected production and inventory of US soybeans in the new year have been adjusted downward; the expected production of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans remains unchanged, and their inventories have increased [90][95][100]. - Sowing and Harvesting Progress: The US soybean sowing progress is fast, and the Argentine soybean harvesting progress has recovered [107]. - Export - Related Information: The US soybean export inspection volume and sales volume have decreased, while Brazil's soybean export is expected to increase [113][119]. Domestic Industry - Inventory and Operation of Oil Mills: The soybean inventory of major oil mills, soybean meal inventory, and soybean oil inventory have all increased. The oil mill operating rate is expected to rise [123][127][131][135]. - Soybean Import and Arrival: In April, the import volume of soybeans increased month - on - month, and the arrival volume of soybeans in May is expected to increase [141][145]. - Profit and Substitute Products: The profit of domestic soybeans has decreased. The price of palm oil has risen, the price of rapeseed oil has fallen, the price of rapeseed meal has decreased, and the oil - meal ratio has declined [149][153][166][173]. - Transaction Volume: The spot transaction volume of soybean meal and the terminal transaction volume of soybean oil have both increased [181]. Downstream - Livestock and Poultry Market: The prices of live pigs and piglets have fallen, and the breeding profits of live pigs and poultry have declined [186][192]. - Feed Market: The monthly output of feed has decreased month - on - month, the inventory of breeding sows has increased, and the inventory of live pigs has increased month - on - month [197][202]. 4. Options Market - From the trend of soybean meal, it is recommended to buy at - the - money put options as it is expected to operate weakly [214]