Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of hot-rolled coil futures rebounded but were blocked, influenced by the interplay of multiple factors, including macroeconomic policies, supply and demand dynamics, and cost fluctuations [3][11]. - The HC2510 contract is expected to undergo weak consolidation within the range of 3280 - 3160 yuan/ton, and investors should pay attention to operation rhythms and risk control [11]. 3. Summary by Directory Weekly Highlights Summary - Market Review: As of May 16th, the closing price of the hot-rolled coil main contract was 3226 yuan/ton (+69), and the spot price of Hangzhou Liantie hot-rolled coil was 3330 yuan/ton (+110). The weekly production of hot-rolled coils decreased to 311.98 (-8.4) million tons, while the apparent demand rebounded to 329.53 million tons (+20, -0.97 year-on-year). Both factory and social inventories declined, with the total inventory at 347.57 million tons (-17.55, -68.08 year-on-year). The steel mill profitability rate was 59.31%, a 0.44 percentage point increase from the previous week and a 7.36 percentage point increase from the same period last year [9]. - Market Outlook: Macroeconomically, China and the United States mutually reduced tariffs, releasing positive signals. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly production of hot-rolled coils decreased, terminal demand recovered, inventory declined, and apparent demand increased. In terms of cost, iron ore prices were oscillating strongly, with decreased shipments and port inventories, and firm spot quotes. Coking coal remained weak, with the first round of price cuts implemented. Technically, the HC2510 contract's rebound was blocked, with the daily K-line suppressed below multiple moving averages, and the MACD indicators running below the 0-axis [11]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures Prices: This week, the HC2510 contract's rebound was blocked, and its performance was weaker than that of the HC2601 contract. On the 16th, the price difference was -12 yuan/ton, a -4 yuan/ton week-on-week change [17]. - Warehouse Receipts and Positions: On May 16th, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's hot-rolled coil warehouse receipt volume was 271,818 tons, a -25,187 tons week-on-week change. The net long position of the top 20 in the hot-rolled coil futures contract was 54,604 lots, a decrease of 95,279 lots from the previous week [21]. - Spot Prices: On May 16th, the spot price of 5.75mm Q235 hot-rolled coil in Shanghai was 3330 yuan/ton, a +110 yuan/ton week-on-week change, and the national average price was 3343 yuan/ton, a +37 yuan/ton week-on-week change. This week, the spot price of hot-rolled coils was stronger than the futures price, and on the 16th, the basis was 104 yuan/ton, a +21 yuan/ton week-on-week change [26]. Upstream Market Conditions - Raw Material Prices: On May 16th, the price of 61% Australian Macfayden iron ore at Qingdao Port was 816 yuan/dry ton, a +17 yuan/dry ton week-on-week change, and the spot price of first-grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1540 yuan/ton, a +0 yuan/ton week-on-week change [31]. - Arrival Volumes: From May 5th - 11th, the total arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 25.7 million tons, a -644,000 tons week-on-week change [35]. - Port Inventories: This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 147.4699 million tons, a -177,200 tons week-on-week change. On May 15th, the steel billet inventory in Tangshan, Hebei was 745,100 tons, a -79,800 tons week-on-week change and a +130,500 tons year-on-year change [39]. - Coking Plant Conditions: This week, the capacity utilization rate of coking plants increased, and coke inventories rose. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 75.23%, a 0.18 percentage point increase; the daily coke output was 536,300 tons, an increase of 13,000 tons; coke inventories were 654,600 tons, an increase of 37,000 tons; the total coking coal inventory was 7.5256 million tons, a -226,100 tons decrease; and the available coking coal days were 10.6 days, a -0.34 day decrease [43]. Industry Conditions - Supply Side - Steel Exports: In April 2025, China exported 10.462 million tons of steel, a 13.4% year-on-year increase; from January - April, China exported 37.891 million tons of steel, an 8.2% year-on-year increase. In April, China imported 522,000 tons of steel, a 20.7% year-on-year decrease; from January - April, China imported 2.072 million tons of steel, a 13.9% year-on-year decrease [46]. - Blast Furnace Operating Rates: On May 16th, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.15%, a -0.47 percentage point week-on-week change and a +2.65 percentage point year-on-year change; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 91.76%, a -0.33 percentage point week-on-week change and a +3.19 percentage point year-on-year change; the daily hot metal output was 2.4477 million tons, a -87,000 tons week-on-week change and a +78,800 tons year-on-year change [50]. - Total Inventories: On May 15th, the total inventory of hot-rolled coils was 347.57 million tons, a -17.55 million tons week-on-week change and a -68.08 million tons year-on-year change [54]. - Demand Side: In the first quarter of 2025, China's automobile production was 7.561 million vehicles, a 14.5% year-on-year increase; sales were 7.47 million vehicles, an 11.2% year-on-year increase. From January - March, the cumulative production of household air conditioners was 74.4576 million units, a 9.7% year-on-year increase; household refrigerators were 24.1455 million units, a 3.7% year-on-year increase; and household washing machines were 29.5643 million units, a 13.9% year-on-year increase [57].
热轧卷板市场周报：多空因素交织，热卷期价反弹受阻-20250516
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-05-16 09:23