油脂油料产业日报-20250516

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - Palm Oil: The estimated production in the producing regions is expected to increase month-on-month, and the approaching seasonal production increase is adding to the supply expectation. Although the domestic port inventory is currently at a low level, as the origin's offer weakens, subsequent purchases are gradually emerging. On the consumption side, due to the inverted soybean-palm oil price spread, there is no incremental consumption, and the inventory is expected to increase and needs to find consumption by further narrowing the soybean-palm oil price spread [3]. - Soybean Oil: On the supply side, as the purchased ships arrive at the port, the pressure is approaching, and the expected oil mill crushing is also rising. However, on the consumption side, due to the lack of incremental consumption to absorb the supply, the inventory is expected to enter a cumulative cycle. In the future, under the expectation of increased supply of both palm oil and soybean oil, the soybean-palm oil price spread may be repaired in the far month to compete for market share in the consumer market [3]. - Rapeseed Oil: Recently, due to the expected improvement in China-Canada relations, the premium on the policy expectation trading in the market has been hit. In terms of the actual supply, as the previously purchased rapeseed has arrived at the port, the coastal rapeseed inventory is gradually decreasing. The current supply of rapeseed oil is at a stage peak, and the expected marginal depletion rate is expected to accelerate from the end of the second quarter to the beginning of the third quarter. On the consumption side, due to the policy premium of rapeseed oil, the rapeseed-soybean oil price spread has always been in a range unfavorable for rapeseed oil consumption, suppressing consumption, and the consumption of rapeseed oil also remains at the level of rigid demand. Currently, there is high inventory pressure, but the policy uncertainty provides support for the far month [3]. - Imported Soybeans: After the China-US talks, the Brazilian premium quotes have been weak recently, weakening the cost support for the domestic market. There may be opportunities for purchasing imported soybeans in the fourth quarter, but considering the current crushing profit situation, the far-month crushing profit is still negative under the retained tariffs on US soybeans, so the purchasing progress is expected to be slow. In terms of arrivals, there are currently 12.5 million tons in May and 10.5 million tons in June, indicating that the near-month supply remains abundant [15]. - Domestic Soybean Meal: The soybean inventory at ports and oil mills continues to rise, and with the gradual increase in the operating rate and the state reserve auction, the supply in some areas has gradually recovered. The national soybean meal inventory has bottomed out and rebounded, and the spot price has been continuously lowered. On the demand side, as oil mills gradually start production to realize profits, downstream buyers have basically completed their备货, and subsequent purchases are expected to be based on the rhythm of rigid demand replenishment, with the physical inventory remaining at a low level [15]. - Rapeseed Meal: The spot rapeseed converted into rapeseed meal and the inventory of rapeseed meal in East and South China are still relatively high. Although it is gradually entering the aquatic product stocking month, the inventory depletion is still difficult. The registration of rapeseed meal delivery month warehouse receipts has reached a historical peak. On the one hand, the low price of soybean meal is constantly squeezing the demand for rapeseed meal, and it is more appropriate to register warehouse receipts for delivery under the background of a negative spot basis. On the other hand, due to the expansion of the number of rapeseed meal delivery factories by the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, the position and delivery volume in the delivery month of the futures market have increased, resulting in a natural short - term trend for rapeseed meal delivery. Last Friday, an announcement on the customs import management measures for rapeseed meal was issued, indicating that the better choice for subsequent imported rapeseed is to process it in the bonded area and then re - export, and the same applies to imported rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil. Coupled with the uncertainty of China - Canada relations in the future, the long - term expectation for the far month is still strong [16]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Oil Price and Spread Information - Oil Inter - monthly and Inter - variety Spreads: The spreads of P 1 - 5, P 5 - 9, P 9 - 1, Y - P 01, Y - P 05, Y - P 09, Y 1 - 5, Y 5 - 9, Y 9 - 1, OI 1 - 5, OI 5 - 9, OI 9 - 1, Y/M 01, Y/M 05, Y/M 09, OI/RM 01, OI/RM 05, and OI/RM 09 are provided, along with their price changes [4]. - Palm Oil Futures and Spot Prices: The prices of palm oil 01, palm oil 05, palm oil 09, BMD palm oil main contract, Guangzhou 24 - degree palm oil, Guangzhou 24 - degree basis, POGO, and international毛豆 - 毛棕 are provided, along with their price changes [7]. - Soybean Oil Futures and Spot Prices: The prices of soybean oil 01, soybean oil 05, soybean oil 09, CBOT soybean oil main contract, Shandong first - grade soybean oil spot, Shandong first - grade soybean oil basis, BOHO (weekly), and domestic first - grade soybean oil - 24 - degree palm oil spread are provided, along with their price changes [12]. 2. Oilseed Information - Oilseed Futures Prices: The closing prices, price changes, and price change rates of soybean meal 01, soybean meal 05, soybean meal 09, rapeseed meal 01, rapeseed meal 05, rapeseed meal 09, CBOT yellow soybeans, and the offshore RMB are provided [17][19]. - Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Spreads: The spreads of M01 - 05, M05 - 09, M09 - 01, RM01 - 05, RM05 - 09, RM09 - 01, soybean meal Rizhao spot, soybean meal Rizhao basis, rapeseed meal Fujian spot, rapeseed meal Fujian basis, soybean - rapeseed meal spot spread, and soybean - rapeseed meal futures spread are provided, along with their price changes [20]. - International Soybean and Rapeseed Pressing Profits: The pressing profits of US Gulf CNF and Brazilian CNF for soybeans, as well as the pressing profits of imported Canadian rapeseed (both spot and futures) are presented [30].