DHL海运市场更新——2025年5月

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the ocean freight market, but it indicates a stabilizing market with expected volatility due to geopolitical tensions and tariff changes [6][30]. Core Insights - Global GDP growth forecasts are 2.2% for 2025 and 2.4% for 2026, with a rising risk of recession in the US impacting demand [6][30]. - Container growth projections have been revised down to -1% for 2025, reflecting a decline in global container throughput [6][30]. - Port congestion remains a significant issue, particularly in European ports, affecting capacity and operational efficiency [37]. - Freight rates are stabilizing, but volatility is expected due to ongoing trade negotiations and tariff discussions [55]. Summary by Sections Demand - Global container trade grew by 11.2% in January 2025, but forecasts have been revised to predict a decline of 1.1% for the year [24][30]. - Demand is expected to remain robust except on the Transpacific route due to ongoing tariff disputes [31]. Capacity - Major carriers are shifting capacity from the Transpacific to other trade lanes due to rising blank sailings and cancellations [6][30]. - Effective capacity is impacted by delays and congestion, with 16% of global capacity currently tied up in routing around the Cape of Good Hope or port congestion [24]. Rates - Container freight rates are stabilizing, with considerable fluctuations in spot rates reflecting uncertainty in the trade environment [55]. - Long-term rates are more stable, but worsening port congestion and potential tariff changes could impact rate dynamics [55]. Port Congestion - Congestion at major North American ports is improving but still exceeds pre-pandemic levels, while European ports like Rotterdam and Antwerp are experiencing significant congestion [37]. Schedule Reliability - Schedule reliability improved to 57.5% in March 2025, the highest since November 2023, with significant regional improvements noted [43]. GDP Growth & Bunker Prices - GDP growth forecasts for different regions indicate a mixed outlook, with the Americas at 2.2% and Europe at 1.3% for 2025 [47]. - Bunker prices are expected to fluctuate, impacting operational costs for shipping companies [48]. Regulatory Changes - The U.S. Trade Representative has revised port fee regulations targeting Chinese carriers, with enforcement starting on October 14, 2025 [7][8]. - The Mediterranean Sea will be designated as an Emission Control Area effective May 1, 2025, requiring vessels to use low-sulfur fuel [6].