策略周报：关税超预期调降，资金为何转向防御？-20250518

Group 1 - The report highlights that the recent tariff reductions between China and the US have exceeded market expectations, leading to a shift in market sentiment towards defensive investments [1][9][11] - The bond market is expected to face short-term volatility, particularly in long-term bonds, due to improved market sentiment from the US-China trade talks, although long-term pressures from manufacturing PMI and export growth remain [2][10][13] - The stock market is anticipated to maintain a volatile trend with increased sector rotation, as the focus shifts from trade conditions to domestic policy support and the resilience of domestic demand [2][10][14] Group 2 - The report notes that the A-share market has recovered to levels seen in early April, but the weakening profit-making effect has led to increased profit-taking and cautious sentiment among investors [10][11] - The report suggests a barbell strategy for asset allocation, emphasizing growth sectors like technology (robotics, AI) alongside defensive sectors (banks, utilities, oil and petrochemicals) [2][10][14] - Key economic indicators such as fixed asset investment, retail sales, and industrial output are set to be released, which will be crucial for assessing the economic recovery [24]