大越期货白糖早报-20250519

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Multiple institutions predict that the global sugar supply will be in surplus in the 25/26 period, with Dataro estimating a surplus of 1.53 million tons, Green Pool forecasting a 5.3% increase in global sugar production to 199.1 million tons, and StoneX projecting Brazil's central - southern sugar production to reach 41.8 million tons in the 25/26 period [4]. - The domestic sugar market shows mixed signals. The sales rate is higher than the same period last year, and the inventory situation and basis are favorable, but the global production increase and expected surplus are negative factors. The Zhengzhou sugar main contract 09 generally fluctuates in the range of 5,800 - 6,000, with a short - term downward trend, and attention should be paid to the support at around 5,800 [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 2. Daily Tips - Fundamentals: Multiple institutions' forecasts indicate a global sugar supply surplus in the 25/26 period. The import tariff of syrup and premixed powder has been adjusted from 12% to 20% since January 1, 2025. As of the end of April 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 11.1072 million tons, the cumulative sales were 7.2446 million tons, and the sales rate was 65.22% (57.73% in the same period last year). In March 2025, China imported 70,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 60,000 tons, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 132,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24,600 tons [4]. - Basis: The spot price in Liuzhou is 6,220, and the basis for the 09 contract is 365, showing a premium over futures [4]. - Inventory: As of the end of April, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 season was 3.8626 million tons [4]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average [4]. - Main Position: The position is long - biased, with a net long - position increase, but the main trend is unclear [4]. - Expectation: The global sugar supply - demand forecast for the next year may show a surplus, and the price of foreign sugar has fallen below 18 cents again. The domestic and foreign futures trends have been relatively synchronized recently. The main contract 09 of Zhengzhou sugar generally fluctuates in the range of 5,800 - 6,000, with a short - term downward trend, and attention should be paid to the support at around 5,800 [4]. 3. Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 4. Fundamental Data - Global Sugar Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (USDA): Data from 2017 - 2024 shows changes in initial inventory, total sugar production, total supply, domestic consumption, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [36]. - Domestic Sugar Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (Rural Ministry): Data from 2022/23 - 2024/25 (April forecast) includes sugarcane and beet planting area, yield per unit area, sugar production, import, consumption, and other information [38]. - Domestic Sugar Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (Bric): Data from 2017 - 2024 shows initial inventory, production, import, domestic total supply, domestic consumption, domestic total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [41]. 5. Position Data No relevant content provided.