菜粕周报5.12-5.16：需求预期良好，菜粕维持震荡-20250519

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, for rapeseed meal, the short - term trading strategy is "short - term shock and slightly stronger" [12]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rapeseed meal shows a strong and volatile trend, influenced by soybean meal trends and technical shock consolidation. Low oil - mill operation and low rapeseed meal inventory support the market. Short - term demand for rapeseed meal spot is gradually rising. Although the arrival of imported rapeseed is increasing, oil - mill inventory has no short - term pressure, and the market will return to range - bound trading in the short term. China's additional tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes is a short - term positive for rapeseed meal, but the positive effect may be limited as no additional tariff is imposed on rapeseed imports. In the short term, rapeseed meal prices will rise and then fall due to low imported rapeseed inventory and the additional tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes, and will return to range - bound trading under the influence of soybean meal [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Prompt - Rapeseed meal is in a strong and volatile state. Influenced by soybean meal trends and technical shock consolidation, low oil - mill operation and low inventory support the market. Short - term demand for spot is rising, and the market will return to range - bound trading. The additional tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes is a short - term positive, but the positive effect may be limited [8]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is recovering from the off - season, with tight spot market supply and rising demand. Canada's annual rapeseed production has slightly decreased, supporting the foreign futures market. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing. Global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to reduced production in the EU and lower - than - expected production in Canada. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and although the reduction in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian rapeseed production offset each other, there is still a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which supports commodity prices [10]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's additional tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low pressure on oil - mill rapeseed meal inventory [11]. - Bearish factors: Expected increase in the arrival of imported rapeseed in April; uncertainty in China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports, and rapeseed meal demand is in the seasonal off - season [11]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [11]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Rapeseed arrival: The arrival of imported rapeseed in May was lower than expected, and the import cost was in a strong and volatile state [19]. - Oil - mill crushing and inventory: Oil - mill rapeseed inventory continued to decline, rapeseed meal inventory rebounded from a low level, and the amount of rapeseed entering the mill for crushing rebounded to a relatively high level [21][23]. - Rapeseed meal trading: Rapeseed meal showed a narrow - range shock on the market, the spot price followed soybean meal and was weak, and the spot premium narrowed [33]. - Aquaculture: Aquatic fish prices fluctuated slightly, and shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [31]. 3.5 Position Data - The number of long positions of the main force decreased, and funds flowed out [8]. 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Trading Strategy - Futures: Short - term shock and slightly stronger. For the single - side RM2509 contract, it will fluctuate around 2500 in the short term. Short - term trading or waiting and seeing are recommended. The futures trading should be mainly based on range - bound operations [12]. - Options strategy: Sell slightly out - of - the - money put options for the 09 contract [13]. 3.7 Technical Analysis - Rapeseed meal shows a narrow - range shock. Driven by rising demand and soybean meal trends, it will maintain a range - bound trading pattern in the short term. Future changes in China - Canada trade relations and the subsequent impact of the China - US tariff war will affect the market. The KDJ indicator oscillates and rebounds at a low level, and although the short - term market is in range - bound trading, the indicator is at a medium - low level, so the room for further decline may be limited. The MACD oscillates and declines, but the green energy narrows, indicating that the shock consolidation trend is approaching the end. The short - term market is still in range - bound trading, and the subsequent trend needs guidance from rapeseed import policies and the influence of soybean meal [42].