大越期货豆粕早报-20250519

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The soybean meal M2509 is expected to oscillate between 2860 and 2920. The overall pattern may remain weakly oscillating due to factors such as increased imports of soybeans in May and potential resumption of US soybean imports, while the low inventory of soybean meal at oil mills supports the bottom of the futures market [9]. - The soybean A2507 is expected to oscillate between 4120 and 4220. It is affected by factors such as the interaction between the influence of US soybeans and the increase in imported soybeans, and the cost - performance advantage of domestic soybeans [11]. - The short - term trend of the soybean and soybean meal markets is mainly oscillatory, influenced by factors such as the outcome of the China - US tariff war, the weather in US soybean - producing areas, and the harvest situation in South America [9][11][13]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - No relevant information provided 2. Recent News - The China - US tariff negotiation reached a short - term agreement, which is beneficial to US soybeans. However, due to the good recent weather for US soybean planting, the US market first rose and then fell, and is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark [13]. - The volume of imported soybeans in China reached a high in May. After the May Day holiday, the domestic soybean inventory rebounded from a low level, but the soybean meal inventory remained low. The soybean and soybean meal markets returned to an oscillatory state, showing a pattern of strong reality and weak expectation [13]. - The reduction in domestic pig - farming profits led to low expectations for pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal weakened after the May Day holiday, but the tight supply supported the post - holiday price expectations. With the reduced pressure of the China - US tariff war, the soybean meal entered a weakly oscillatory pattern in the short term [13]. - The low inventory of soybean meal at domestic oil mills supported the short - term price expectations. There is still a possibility of speculation about the weather in US soybean - producing areas and the uncertainty of the China - US tariff war. The soybean meal will maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short term, waiting for the clarification of South American soybean production and the follow - up of the China - US tariff war [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of soybean meal at domestic oil mills, and variable weather in US soybean - producing areas [14]. - Bearish factors: the total volume of imported soybeans in China rebounded to a high in May, and the expectation of a bumper harvest of South American soybeans continued [14]. Soybean - Bullish factors: the cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in demand for domestic soybeans supports the price expectations [15]. - Bearish factors: the continuous expectation of a bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectations [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - Price and Basis: The soybean meal futures are weakly oscillating, and the spot price is relatively weak after the May Day holiday, with the premium continuing to narrow. The spot price of soybean meal in East China on May 16 was 2920, with a basis of 21, showing a premium over the futures [9][23]. - Inventory: The inventory of soybeans at oil mills continued to rise, with 534.91 million tons as of a certain time, a 12.7% increase from the previous week and a 27.79% increase year - on - year. The soybean meal inventory at oil mills was 10.12 million tons, a 23.26% increase from the previous week and an 81.9% decrease year - on - year [9][11]. - Production and Consumption: The soybean crushing volume at oil mills continued to rise, but the soybean meal output in April decreased year - on - year. The downstream procurement decreased after the holiday, but the提货 volume remained good [25][27]. 5. Position Data - For soybean meal M2509, the main long positions decreased, and the funds flowed out [9]. - For soybean A2507, the main short positions increased, and the funds flowed out [11].