LPG早报-20250519

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The domestic LPG market is expected to gradually increase in supply, with chemical demand expected to recover and combustion demand continuing to decline. Overall, it may continue the trend of fluctuating downward [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Price Changes - Daily Changes: On Friday, for civil gas, prices in Shandong decreased by 10 to 4590, in East China decreased by 3 to 4906, and remained stable in South China at 4940; for imported gas, prices in East China decreased by 8 to 5045, and in South China decreased by 10 to 5040; etherified C4 decreased by 12 to 4520. The PG futures price declined, the basis of the 06 contract weakened to 256, the spread between 06 - 07 contracts slightly weakened to 81, and the spread between 07 - 09 contracts remained basically flat at 159. The US - Far East arbitrage window closed [1]. - Weekly Changes: Last week, domestic civil gas prices declined significantly, with South China at 4920 (-3.3%), East China at 4906 (-0.7%), Shandong at 4570 (-4.8%), and Shandong etherified C4 at 4520 (-5.8%). The PG futures center of gravity moved slightly downward. The basis of the 06 contract was 256 (-187), the spread between 06 - 07 contracts was 81 (-23), and the spread between 07 - 08 contracts was 76 (-8). After the tariff eased, the overseas prices rose, with MB at 407 (+23), FEI at 544 (+22.8), and CP slightly increasing to 584 (+5.5). The discount of June CP cargoes decreased by nearly half, and the FEI discount returned to single - digit positive. The domestic - overseas price difference decreased significantly. The freight rates from the US Gulf to Japan and from the Middle East to the Far East slightly increased to 117 (+7) and 65 (+7) respectively [1]. Fundamental Situation - Supply: High arrival volumes and little change in demand led to port inventory accumulation, while factory inventory remained basically flat. The LPG commercial volume was 50.41 tons (+4.09%), and the expected increase in commercial volume in the next three weeks is expected to decrease [1]. - Chemical Demand: The PDH operating rate declined to 57.98% (-1.61), and production margins recovered. It is expected that the PDH operating rate will slightly increase next week. The alkylation operating rate was 39.87% (-2.37), the commercial volume was 18,450 (-1100), and the profit significantly expanded to 267 yuan/ton (+1113%). It is expected that the operating rate will slightly increase next week. Crude oil rebound drove MTBE to stop falling and rise. With low supply, stable exports, and manufacturers' intention to support prices, but increasing downstream resistance, it is expected that MTBE will slightly decline, but the overall decline will be limited [1]. - Combustion Demand: With the increase in temperature, combustion demand is expected to show a downward trend [1].