贵金属日评-20250519

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold's mid - line upward trend remains intact, with increased volatility. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - to - low positions. For those with a bearish bias, the "long gold, short silver" arbitrage trade can be considered. Silver is relatively weak due to industrial demand pressure [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals Market Quotes and Outlook - Intraday Quotes: Overnight, London gold rebounded by over $130/ounce from $3120/ounce due to the dim prospects of Russia - Ukraine negotiations and the Fed's revision of its monetary policy framework. However, the Iran - US nuclear deal negotiations and the outlook for Iranian crude oil exports pressured oil prices and weakened gold's safe - haven and inflation - hedging demand. As of May 16 Asian session, London gold weakened and adjusted to $3210/ounce. Currently, the gold price has adjusted to around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level since the rally in late 2024, where there may be some support. Gold's safe - haven demand is significantly boosted by Trump 2.0's new policies, but silver is relatively weak under industrial demand pressure [4]. - Domestic Precious Metals Quotes: The Shanghai Gold Index closed at 752.79, up 1.65%; the Shanghai Silver Index closed at 8,121, up 1.16%; Gold T + D closed at 747.28, up 1.62%; Silver T + D closed at 8,062, up 1.19% [5]. - Mid - line Quotes: In early April, Trump's tariff measures shocked the global market and pressured global financial assets including gold. However, due to Trump's actions damaging the US dollar's credit, the triple safe - haven demand drove the London gold price to break through $3500/ounce on April 22. Although the Sino - US trade situation and geopolitical tensions have eased, the mid - level upward trend of gold remains good. The long - and mid - term factors driving gold prices will continue to exist, but short - term surges and high price - to - earnings ratios also mean increased volatility [5]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market - Related Charts The report presents multiple charts, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - to - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets [7][9][11]. 3.3 Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - Iran - US Nuclear Deal Negotiations: Trump said the US is close to reaching a nuclear deal with Iran, but an Iranian source said there are still gaps to bridge. Negotiations ended in Oman on Sunday, and further talks are expected due to Iran's uranium - enrichment activities [17]. - Russia - Ukraine Peace Talks: Putin refused to meet Zelensky face - to - face in Turkey and sent a second - tier delegation. Zelensky will send a delegation led by the defense minister. Trump and US Secretary of State Rubio said they have low expectations for the talks [17]. - US - UAE Relations: Trump promised to strengthen US - UAE relations, announcing deals worth over $200 billion and deeper cooperation in the AI field. Etihad Airways will invest $14.5 billion in Boeing aircraft [18]. - US Retail Sales: US retail sales growth slowed significantly in April. After a 1.7% increase in March, it rose only 0.1% in April, with a year - on - year increase of 5.2%. Core retail sales excluding certain items decreased by 0.2% [18]. - China's Urban Renewal: China aims to make significant progress in urban renewal by 2030, with increased support from central budgetary investment and special ultra - long - term treasury bonds [18].