燃料油早报-20250519

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the high-sulfur crack strengthened, the 380 near end ran strongly, the monthly spread strengthened again, and the basis fluctuated. The low-sulfur crack oscillated at a high level, the near end of the monthly spread strengthened, and the basis continued to strengthen. This week, Singapore's onshore inventory continued to decline, ARA ports' inventory decreased, and the US residual oil inventory increased significantly. The floating storage of high-sulfur fuel oil in Singapore decreased, resulting in an overall inventory decline. The floating storage in the Middle East oscillated at a high level, and Saudi Arabia's exports were neutral year-on-year. The floating storage in Fujairah fluctuated, and the floating storage in Europe decreased. Recently, the low-sulfur fuel oil has strengthened. Attention should be paid to the subsequent realization of supply increments and the change in the low-sulfur exports of the Dangote refinery. The high-sulfur crack is running strongly, with profits higher than the historical average. This year, affected by the consumption tax deduction and tariff adjustment in China, the feedstock demand of fuel oil refineries has dropped significantly. The marine fuel demand is expected to be weaker year-on-year due to tariff impacts. In the short term, the marine fuel market has become prosperous due to rush shipments. In the future, attention should be paid to the procurement demand for power generation and the opportunity for the high-sulfur crack to decline in the medium term [3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Prices - From May 12 - 16, 2025, the prices of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 increased by 3.94, Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 increased by 4.70, Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 decreased by 0.11, Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 decreased by 3.38, Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 increased by 8.08, LGO - Brent M1 decreased by 1.28, and Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 increased by 0.76 [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Prices - From May 12 - 16, 2025, the prices of Singapore 380cst M1 increased by 3.60, Singapore 180cst M1 increased by 3.00, Singapore VLSFO M1 increased by 0.17, Singapore Gasoil M1 decreased by 0.11, Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 increased by 0.48, and Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 increased by 0.98 [1][8] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Prices - From May 12 - 16, 2025, the FOB 380cst price increased by 6.42, the FOB VLSFO price decreased by 2.75, the 380 basis increased by 0.70, the high - sulfur domestic - foreign price difference decreased by 1.2, and the low - sulfur domestic - foreign price difference decreased by 2.8 [2] Domestic FU Prices - From May 12 - 16, 2025, the price of FU 01 decreased by 1, FU 05 decreased by 5, FU 09 increased by 6, FU 01 - 05 increased by 4, FU 05 - 09 decreased by 11, and FU 09 - 01 increased by 7 [2] Domestic LU Prices - From May 12 - 16, 2025, the price of LU 01 decreased by 10, LU 05 decreased by 7, LU 09 decreased by 18, LU 01 - 05 decreased by 3, LU 05 - 09 increased by 11, and LU 09 - 01 decreased by 8 [3]