有色早报-20250519

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The inventory decline slope of copper may continue to slow down, and attention should be paid to the consumption inflection point. For the month - spread, follow - up upward momentum requires substantial shortages or a decline in absolute prices [1] - With the easing of the global trade tension and the decline in inventory, the aluminum price is expected to rebound. The month - spread positive arbitrage can be held if the absolute price drops [2] - For zinc, pay attention to the turning point from inventory decline to accumulation, and it is recommended to short at high prices. The internal - external positive arbitrage can be continued [5] - For nickel, continue to pay attention to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [6] - For stainless steel, short - term long and short factors are intertwined, and the reverse arbitrage can be rolled over and held [8] - Lead is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,800 - 17,000 next week, and the supply in May is expected to decrease cyclically [10] - For tin, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the medium - long term [12] - The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate at the bottom, anchored to the cash - flow cost of leading large enterprises in the medium - long term [14] - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate weakly in the medium - long term, and there may be short - term replenishment demand from downstream [16] 3. Summary by Metal Copper - Market Data: From May 12 - 16, the spot premium of Shanghai copper changed by 430, the waste - refined copper price difference increased by 150, and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 2,712. The LME inventory decreased by 5,275 [1] - Supply and Demand: Domestic inventory showed an inflection point this week. The smelters were eager to sell under the high monthly spread, and downstream orders slowed down. The demand has strong current reality but weak future expectations [1] Aluminum - Market Data: From May 12 - 16, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price decreased by 80, the domestic alumina price increased by 30, and the Shanghai aluminum social inventory decreased. The LME inventory decreased by 1,825 [1][2] - Supply and Demand: Supply increased slightly, and the import of aluminum ingots was large from January to March. The demand in May is expected to decline slightly, and there is still a supply - demand gap. The inventory is expected to decline gently from May to July [2] Zinc - Market Data: From May 12 - 16, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 130, the domestic social inventory remained unchanged, and the LME inventory decreased by 975 [5] - Supply and Demand: The domestic TC remained unchanged this week, and the imported TC increased slightly. The domestic demand has general elasticity, and the export can be maintained. Overseas demand in Europe has slightly recovered [5] Nickel - Market Data: From May 12 - 16, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, and the LME inventory decreased by 3,924 [6] - Supply and Demand: The production of pure nickel remained at a high level. The overall demand was weak, and the overseas nickel beans inventory decreased slightly [6] Stainless Steel - Market Data: From May 12 - 16, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil remained unchanged, and the price of waste stainless steel decreased by 50 [6] - Supply and Demand: The production increased seasonally in April, and steel mills may cut production passively in May. The demand is mainly for rigid needs [6][7] Lead - Market Data: From May 12 - 16, the spot premium decreased by 10, and the LME inventory decreased by 1,825 [8] - Supply and Demand: The supply of raw materials was tight, and the demand was weak. The overall consumption was in the off - season, and the price is expected to fluctuate in a certain range next week [7][8][9] Tin - Market Data: From May 12 - 16, the spot import profit decreased by 45.78, and the LME inventory decreased by 10 [12] - Supply and Demand: The African Alphamin mine has resumed production, and the supply of domestic raw materials is still disturbed. The demand for solder is limited, and the growth of terminal electronics and photovoltaics is expected to decline [12] Industrial Silicon - Market Data: From May 12 - 16, the 421 Yunnan basis increased by 165, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 49 [14] - Supply and Demand: Some factories have cut production, and the downstream demand for organic silicon and polysilicon is declining. The overall supply and demand have reached a tight balance, and the social inventory has started to decline [14] Lithium Carbonate - Market Data: From May 12 - 16, the SMM electric carbon price decreased by 300, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 40 [16] - Supply and Demand: The overall production has increased, and the inventory accumulation speed has slowed down. The downstream demand is in a small peak season, but the demand improvement is less than expected. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the medium - long term [16]