大越期货纯碱周报-20250519

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Last week, the soda ash futures fluctuated downward. The closing price of the main contract SA2509 decreased by 1.23% compared to the previous week, reaching 1289 yuan/ton. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1320 yuan/ton, down 0.38% from the previous week [2]. - The supply of soda ash is declining from a high level, while the demand is weak. It is expected that the futures price will mainly fluctuate weakly. The downstream demand for float and photovoltaic glass is average, with downstream enterprises replenishing inventory as needed and having low intention to stockpile raw materials. The inventory is still at a historically high level [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Weekly Market Conditions of Soda Ash Futures and Spot Goods - The closing price of the main futures contract SA2509 was 1289 yuan/ton, a 1.23% decrease from the previous week. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1320 yuan/ton, down 0.38%. The main basis increased by 55% to 31 yuan/ton [2][9]. Soda Ash Spot Market - Production Profit: The profit of the heavy soda ash joint - alkali method in East China was 207.50 yuan/ton, and the profit of the heavy soda ash ammonia - alkali method in North China was - 14.60 yuan/ton. The production profit is at a historically low level [18]. - Operating Rate and Production Volume: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry was 80.27%, showing a stable recovery. The weekly production volume was 67.77 tons, with heavy soda ash production at 36.90 tons, and the production volume is falling from a historical high [21][23]. - Industry Capacity Changes: In 2023, the new capacity was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; in 2025, the planned new capacity is 750 tons, with 60 tons actually put into production [27]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - Sales - to - Production Ratio: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash was 98.42% [30]. - Downstream Demand: The daily melting volume of national float glass was 15.67 tons, and the operating rate of 75% continued to decline, resulting in weak demand for soda ash. The price of photovoltaic glass stabilized, the daily melting volume in production recovered to 9.1 tons, and the production volume stabilized [33][36]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 171.20 tons, with heavy soda ash inventory at 88.33 tons, and the inventory is at a historically high level in the same period [39]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet shows the data of effective capacity, production, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate from 2017 to 2024E [40]. Influencing Factors Summary - Positive Factors: The production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, boosting the demand for soda ash [6]. - Negative Factors: The supply of soda ash is declining from a high level, the improvement of terminal demand is limited, and the inventory, although continuously decreasing, is still at a high level in the same period. The supply - demand mismatch pattern in the industry has not been effectively improved [7].