大越期货尿素早报-20250519

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The urea market is currently in a neutral state overall, with the price stabilizing after the export policy is implemented. The short - term trend of the main contract is expected to be volatile [4]. - The main logic lies in the high daily production on the supply side and the marginal changes in demand. The main risk is the change in export policy [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - Fundamentals: The urea futures price has rebounded and then fluctuated recently. The supply side has high operating rates and daily production, and new plants have been put into operation. The inventory has rapidly declined in the short term. On the demand side, the operating rate of compound fertilizers in industrial demand has significantly declined, and the inventory has increased. The operating rate of melamine has rapidly increased, and agricultural demand has gradually improved. The international urea price is strong, with high export profits but restricted by export policies. After the export policy was implemented on May 15 - 16, the price has stabilized. The spot price of the deliverable is 1930 (unchanged) [4]. - Basis: The basis of the UR2509 contract is 38, with a premium - discount ratio of 2.0%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - Inventory: The comprehensive UR inventory is 950,000 tons (- 248,000 tons), indicating a bearish signal [4]. - Futures Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the main UR contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - Main Position: The net long position of the main UR contract has decreased, still indicating a bullish signal [4]. - Expectation: The main urea contract is expected to fluctuate today, with short - term rebound in the futures price, high daily production, short - term decline in inventory, and gradually improving agricultural demand [4]. - Leverage Factors: Bullish factors include the implementation of export policies and the gradual improvement of agricultural demand; bearish factors include high daily production and new plant commissioning [5]. Spot and Futures Market | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | Spot | The spot price of the deliverable is 1930 (unchanged), Shandong spot is 1950 (unchanged), Henan spot is 1930 (unchanged), and FOB China is 2577 [6]. | | Futures | The UR09 contract price is 1892 (+6), UR01 is 1799 (-15), and UR05 is 1868 (-32). The basis of the UR2509 contract is 38 (-6) [6]. | | Inventory | Warehouse receipts are 7352 (unchanged), UR comprehensive inventory is 950,000 tons (- 248,000 tons), UR factory inventory is 817,000 tons, and UR port inventory is 133,000 tons [6]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity has been increasing year by year, with capacity growth rates ranging from 8.4% to 18.6%. The production volume has also generally shown an upward trend, and the apparent consumption has increased steadily. The import dependence has fluctuated between 10.2% and 19.3%. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [10].