大越期货玻璃早报-20250519

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The glass market has a weak fundamental situation. In the short term, it is expected to mainly show a weak and volatile trend. Although there are some positive factors such as a significant negative feedback on production profit leading to a continuous decline in glass production to a historical low and progress in Sino - US tariff negotiations, the negative factors are more prominent, including weak real - estate terminal demand and cautious attitudes of traders and processors. Overall, the glass is expected to be in a low - level, volatile, and slightly strong operation, but there are risks such as accelerated industry复产 and less - than - expected macro and real - estate policies [2][3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1036 yuan/ton to 1005 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.99%. The spot price of Shahe Safety large - board glass decreased from 1092 yuan/ton to 1076 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.47%. The main basis increased from 56 yuan/ton to 71 yuan/ton, an increase of 26.79% [6]. 3.2 Glass Spot Market The market price of 5mm white glass large - board in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, is 1076 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. 3.3 Cost - side of Fundamentals - Coal production lines have seen a recovery in profitability, the losses of natural gas production lines have narrowed, and the profits of petroleum coke production lines have turned negative [17]. 3.4 Production - side of Fundamentals - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 222, with an operating rate of 75%, and the number of operating production lines is at a historical low for the same period. The daily melting capacity of national float glass is 156,700 tons, and the production capacity is at the lowest level in the same period in history [21][23]. 3.5 Demand - side of Fundamentals - In February 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 431,430 tons. The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period. The capital collection situation in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly focusing on digesting the inventory of raw glass [27][4]. 3.6 Inventory - side of Fundamentals The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 68.082 million weight boxes, an increase of 0.77% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [45]. 3.7 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including data on production, exports, imports, apparent supply, consumption, differences, production growth rates, consumption growth rates, and net import ratios. For example, in 2024E, the production is 55.1 million tons, the apparent supply is 54.61 million tons, and the consumption is 53.1 million tons [46]. 3.8 Influencing Factors - Positive Factors: Significant negative feedback on production profit has led to a continuous decline in glass production to a historical low, and there has been progress in Sino - US tariff negotiations [3]. - Negative Factors: The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period. The capital collection situation in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly focusing on digesting the inventory of raw glass [4]. 3.9 Main Logic and Risk Points - Main Logic: The glass supply has declined to a relatively low level in the same period. Under the influence of the seasonal peak - season expectation, the spot price has increased, and the downstream has carried out phased restocking, resulting in a reduction in glass factory inventory. It is expected that the glass will mainly show a low - level, volatile, and slightly strong operation [5]. - Risk Points: Accelerated industry复产 and less - than - expected macro and real - estate policies [5].