大越期货沪铜早报-20250519

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The copper market has neutral fundamentals with a mixed set of factors. The copper price is expected to move in a range, influenced by factors such as the slowdown of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, inventory reduction from a high level, and the easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - The fundamentals are neutral as smelting enterprises are reducing production, the scrap copper policy has been relaxed, and the manufacturing PMI in April was 50.4%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month but still in the expansion range [2]. - The basis shows a premium of the spot price over the futures price, with the spot price at 78745 and the basis at 705, which is a bullish factor [2]. - Copper inventories decreased by 5275 tons to 179375 tons on May 16, while the SHFE copper inventory increased by 27437 tons to 108142 tons compared to last week, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is rising, indicating a bullish signal [2]. - The main net position has changed from long to short, which is a bearish factor [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - The logic involves domestic policy easing and the escalation of trade wars, but specific details of the impact are not elaborated [3]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, the market is expected to be in a tight - balance state [20]. - The China annual supply - demand balance table shows production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance data from 2018 to 2024 [22].