大越期货国债期货周报-20250519

Report Overview - Report Title: Treasury Bond Futures Weekly Report (May 12 - May 16, 2025) [1] - Analyst: Du Shufang [1] - Futures Qualification Number: F0230469 [1] - Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0000690 [1] Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - After the release of the negative news of the easing of the China - US tariff war, the market returned to a volatile state. Considering the weak fundamentals and the unchanged easing direction of the central bank, the upward space for short - term interest rates may be limited. It is recommended to try to go long on dips [3]. Summary by Section This Week's Market Review - Treasury bond futures declined significantly this week, especially in the ultra - long end. At the beginning of the week, bond futures tumbled due to the China - US Geneva Joint Statement on tariff reduction, and then fluctuated slightly downward [3]. - The joint statement on May 12 led to an increase in market expectations for tariff risk mitigation and economic recovery, weakening the hedging demand for long - term treasury bonds and increasing the resistance to further decline in interest rates. However, the China - US trade relationship has not fully recovered, and there are still uncertainties [3]. - In April, the social financing scale increased by 1.16 trillion yuan but fell short of expectations. The increase was mainly driven by the accelerated issuance of government bonds, while the credit demand of enterprises and residents remained weak. The M2 growth rate rebounded significantly, but the M1 growth rate remained low, reflecting the increased risk aversion of residents and the capital hedging demand under capital market fluctuations [3]. - In April, the CPI year - on - year growth rate was - 0.1%, and the month - on - month growth rate was 0.1%. The PPI month - on - month decreased by 0.4%, mainly affected by imported factors such as the decline in international commodity prices [3]. - In April, exports increased by 8.1% year - on - year (previous value: 12.4%), and exports to the US decreased by 21.03%. The data release caused a slight fluctuation in the bond market. China's exports showed resilience as they did not decline under the influence of US tariff policies [3]. - Overseas, Fed Chairman Powell hinted that the era of "lower interest rates for longer" may be over. The central bank's open - market operations achieved a net withdrawal of 47.51 billion yuan this week, and the short - term interest rates in the money market remained stable [3]. This Week's Important News Review - In April, the CPI month - on - month changed from a 0.4% decline to a 0.1% increase; year - on - year, it decreased by 0.1%. The core CPI month - on - month changed from flat to a 0.2% increase; year - on - year, it increased by 0.5%. The PPI month - on - month decreased by 0.4%, and the year - on - year decline widened by 0.2 percentage points to 2.7% [5]. - From January to April 2025, RMB loans increased by 10.06 trillion yuan, and the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 16.34 trillion yuan, 3.61 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. At the end of April, the balance of broad money (M2) was 325.17 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8%; the balance of narrow money (M1) was 109.14 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%; the balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 13.14 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 12% [5]. - In April 2025, China's exports increased by 8.1% year - on - year (market expectation: 2.0%); imports decreased by 0.2% year - on - year (market expectation: - 6.0%). The trade surplus was 96.18 billion US dollars [5]. - Fed Chairman Powell said that the Fed is adjusting its policy framework to address the high - inflation challenges in the post - pandemic era, hinting that the era of "lower interest rates for longer" may be over [5]. Trend Review - The report presents historical data trends of PPI, PMI, CPI, and GDP, but no specific analysis is provided [12][13][15][17] Cash Bond Analysis - The report shows the historical trends of DR interest rates, inter - bank treasury bond yields, and treasury bond term spreads, but no specific analysis is provided [20][24] Basis Analysis - The report shows the historical trends of the CTD bond basis of T2406, TF2406, and TS2406, but no specific analysis is provided [25][26][28]