大越期货聚烯烃早报-20250519

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Date: May 19, 2025 - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [2][3] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE and PP are neutral. The short - term tariff relaxation boosts market sentiment, but the final negotiation result remains uncertain in the long - term. The cost support from crude oil and coal is weakening. For LLDPE, it's the off - season for agricultural film, while for PP, the downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. The inventories of both are neutral, and it is expected that the prices of PE and PP will fluctuate today [4][6]. Summary by Section LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: In April, the official PMI was 49%, down 1.5 percentage points from March, and the Caixin PMI was 50.4%, down 0.8 percentage points from March. Tariff games are the key factor. Short - term tariff relaxation boosts market sentiment, and there is a rush - to - export phenomenon. The cost support from crude oil and coal is weakening. It's the off - season for agricultural film, but there is a rush - work tide among foreign - trade enterprises due to tariff adjustments. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7400 (unchanged). The overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is 102, with a premium ratio of 1.4%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 58.4 tons (- 5.2), which is neutral [4]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a bullish sign [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract fluctuates. Short - term tariff relaxation boosts market sentiment, and there is a rush - work tide among foreign - trade enterprises. It's the off - season for agricultural film demand, and the industrial chain inventory is neutral. It is expected that PE will fluctuate today [4]. - Likely Factors: Bullish factors include a strong basis and better - than - expected Sino - US talks; bearish factors include new capacity launch and weak crude oil [5]. PP Overview - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE, in April, the official and Caixin PMIs declined. Tariff games are crucial. Short - term tariff relaxation boosts market sentiment, and there is a rush - to - export phenomenon. The cost support from crude oil and coal is weakening. The downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and there is a rush - work tide among foreign - trade enterprises due to tariff adjustments. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7350 (unchanged). The overall fundamentals are neutral [6]. - Basis: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 189, with a premium ratio of 2.6%, indicating a bullish signal [6]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 60.4 tons (- 7.2), which is neutral [6]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a bullish sign [6]. - Main Position: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, indicating a bearish signal [6]. - Expectation: The PP main contract fluctuates. Short - term tariff relaxation boosts market sentiment, and there is a rush - work tide among foreign - trade enterprises. The demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the industrial chain inventory is neutral. It is expected that PP will fluctuate today [6]. - Likely Factors: Bullish factors include a strong basis and better - than - expected Sino - US talks; bearish factors include weak crude oil [7]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity has been increasing, with a projected 20.5% growth in 2025E. The import dependence has gradually decreased from 46.3% in 2018 to 32.9% in 2024. The consumption growth rate has fluctuated, with a 1.4% increase in 2024 [13]. - Polypropylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity has also been rising, with an expected 11.0% growth in 2025E. The import dependence has decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 9.5% in 2024, and the consumption growth rate was 8.4% in 2024 [15].