摩根士丹利：中国经济-关税休战推动二季度 GDP 跟踪预测走强，通缩压力仍持续

Investment Rating - The report indicates a modest upside risk to the 2Q GDP tracking of 4.5% year-on-year [3][7]. Core Insights - April production moderated to 6.1% year-on-year, which was better than the consensus estimate of 5.7% year-on-year, but domestic demand softened more than expected due to tariff impacts and a payback of front-loaded infrastructure spending [2][6]. - The US-China tariff truce is expected to lead to strong export front-loading, with container bookings from China to the US spiking nearly 300% week-on-week [3][7]. - Elevated tariffs, currently at 40%, are likely to contribute to lingering deflation, necessitating more consumption stimulus, although additional stimulus measures may be lighter and delayed [4][7]. Summary by Sections Economic Activity - Industrial Production (IP) in April was 6.1%, down from 7.7% in March, with manufacturing at 6.6% and utilities at 2.1% [6]. - Fixed Asset Investment (FAI) year-to-date was 4.0%, with manufacturing investment at 8.2% and infrastructure at 9.6% [6]. - Retail sales nominally grew by 5.1%, with notable increases in home appliances (38.8%) and mobile phones (19.9%), while the property sector saw a decline in sales by 2.4% [6]. Tariff Impact - The report highlights that the tariff shock has negatively affected sentiment, contributing to weaker domestic demand and investment [2][4]. - The ongoing tariff uncertainties are expected to keep export-related capital expenditures subdued [3][7]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that while there is a potential for GDP growth due to export front-loading, the domestic economy may face challenges from excess capacity and deflationary pressures [4][7]. - A fiscal package of Rmb0.5-1 trillion is anticipated in the fourth quarter to stimulate consumption, although the approach may be gradual [4].