摩根士丹利：中国经济-关税休战推动二季度 GDP 跟踪预测走强，通缩压力仍持续

May 19, 2025 04:20 AM GMT China Economics | Asia Pacific Stronger 2Q GDP Tracking on Tariff Truce; Deflation Still Lingers Key Takeaways Still decent production, weaker-than-expected domestic demand: April production moderated to 6.1%Y (Consensus: 5.7%Y; 6.5%Y in 1Q) on accelerated export re-rerouting. On the other hand, both FAI and retail sales softened more than the market expected, due to: (1) tariff shock on sentiment; (2) a modest payback of front-loaded infrastructure boost in 1Q and marginally weake ...