摩根士丹利：关税休战后的下一步是什么？

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook on the US-China tariff situation, suggesting a meaningful reduction in tariffs which could benefit trade dynamics [7][5]. Core Insights - The US has significantly reduced its headline reciprocal tariffs on China from 125% to 34%, with further exemptions considered for various sectors [5][6]. - The report highlights that while tariff de-escalation is progressing faster than previously anticipated, a durable resolution to trade tensions remains elusive [9][7]. - China's demand for energy commodities is likely at its peak, limiting the potential for increased imports from the US [9]. Summary by Sections Tariff Changes - The US has implemented substantial tariff cuts, with the current level of tariffs on Chinese exports being significantly lower than earlier projections [5][6]. - The report notes that the tariff hikes initially planned have been reduced, indicating a shift towards a more favorable trade environment [4][5]. Trade Balances - Changes in trade balances by product indicate that it is relatively easier for China to increase imports from the US, although this may impact domestic employment [10]. - The report provides a detailed analysis of the trade balance changes, showing a complex interplay between US and Chinese trade dynamics [10]. Economic Impact - The report anticipates that exports may weaken but not slump in the second quarter of 2025, reflecting a cautious optimism regarding economic recovery [15]. - It also discusses the potential for additional stimulus measures in China, although these are expected to be smaller and delayed [20][21]. Innovation and AI - China's innovation capacity is on the rise, with a significant increase in international patent applications, indicating a growing emphasis on R&D [24][26]. - The report highlights the competitive dynamics in AI, noting that China is catching up in innovation, supported by a large pool of AI talent [34][36].