Investment Rating - The report assigns a 12-month rating of "Buy" for Alibaba Group with a price target of US$178.00, slightly reduced from the previous target of US$180.00 [5][9]. Core Insights - The report indicates a mixed outlook for Alibaba Group, with strong growth in the core Taobao Tmall (TTG) business and confidence in AliCloud's revenue acceleration, despite short-term margin fluctuations [4][8]. - Revenue for 4QFY25 increased by 7% year-over-year, while adjusted EBITA rose by 36% year-over-year, both slightly missing expectations [2][4]. - The investment thesis remains unchanged over a 1-2 year perspective, supported by reasonable valuation metrics and AliCloud's leadership in AI [8][9]. Summary by Sections Taobao Tmall (TTG) Outlook - CMR accelerated to +12% YoY, outperforming the previous quarter's +9% [3]. - Expected growth in GMV aligns with industry trends, projected at +4% [3]. - Forecast for FY26E includes CMR growth of +8% and TTG EBITA growth of +5% [3]. Cloud Outlook - Management remains optimistic about accelerating growth, with revenue forecasted to increase by +23% for FY26E [3]. - EBITA margin is expected to decrease to 7% due to high fixed costs and AI investments [3]. Other Business Segments - AIDC revenue growth slowed to 22%, balancing expansion and profitability [3]. - Local services are expected to face widening losses due to increased competition in food delivery [3]. Financial Metrics - Total revenues are projected to reach Rmb996.3 billion in FY25E, with a slight increase to Rmb994.0 billion in FY26E [13]. - Adjusted EBITA is forecasted at Rmb173.1 billion for FY25E, with a margin of 17.4% [13]. - Non-GAAP diluted EPS is expected to be Rmb65.41 for FY25E, with a slight downward revision [6][13]. Valuation - The report highlights an undemanding valuation at 12x FY26E P/E, supporting the "Buy" rating [9]. - The total estimated value for Alibaba Group is Rmb395.3 billion, with a significant portion attributed to marketplace commerce [14].
瑞银:阿里巴巴-2025 财年第四季度业绩略有不及预期;短期利润率波动但核心逻辑不变
2025-05-19 09:58