花旗：日本策略-反弹之后 - 日本股市展望与策略

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious outlook on Japanese stocks, indicating that they are likely to struggle to maintain current levels due to expected global economic slowdown and deteriorating earnings forecasts [1][3]. Core Insights - Japanese stocks have rebounded more than anticipated after a sharp correction, returning to pre-correction levels, attributed to smooth tariff negotiations, inflation concerns, and strong global macroeconomic data [2][6]. - Despite the recent rebound, the report anticipates that Japanese stocks will likely be soft in the coming months as earnings forecast revisions are expected to turn negative [3][24]. - A strategy focusing on high-quality stocks with strong earnings revisions is recommended, as these have shown positive returns during both the correction and rebound phases [4][36]. Summary by Sections Rebound Analysis - Japanese stocks have corrected sharply but have rebounded significantly, with 28 TSE sectors recovering over 90% of their losses [6]. - The stronger-than-expected rebound is attributed to smooth tariff negotiations, inflation concerns preventing large fund shifts to bonds, and firm global macroeconomic data [2][6]. Earnings Forecasts - The report predicts a deterioration in earnings forecasts for Japanese companies due to rising US tariff rates and negative global economic impacts [3][15]. - Historical patterns indicate that when earnings forecasts decline, stocks typically either correct ahead of revisions or follow a declining range until signs of recovery emerge [24]. Investment Strategy - The report highlights that high-quality stocks (measured by RoE, RoIC, RoA) and those with high earnings revisions have performed well during both market phases [4][36]. - If economic uncertainty recedes, a rotation into value stocks is expected; however, if uncertainty persists, the trend favoring high-quality stocks is likely to continue [4][36].