瑞达期货碳酸锂产业日报-20250519

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market remains in a state of oversupply, with high industrial inventories. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a volatile manner and pay attention to controlling risks in trading rhythm [2]. - The option market shows a bullish sentiment, with the call position dominant and a slight increase in implied volatility [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 61,180 yuan/ton, down 620 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is -27,884 lots, up 8,827 lots; the position of the main contract is 335,807 lots, up 7,066 lots; the spread between near and far - month contracts is 2,260 yuan/ton, up 3,120 yuan; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts are 36,684 lots/ton, up 60 lots [2]. 现货市场 - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 63,700 yuan/ton, down 800 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 62,050 yuan/ton, down 800 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is 2,520 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 753 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite is 7,240 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) is 1,811 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly production of lithium carbonate is 47,900 tons, up 4,720 tons; the monthly import volume is 18,125.49 tons, up 5,797.53 tons; the monthly export volume is 220.03 tons, down 197.10 tons; the enterprise operating rate is 53%, up 3 percentage points; the monthly production of power batteries is 118,200 MWh, down 100 MWh [2]. Downstream and Application Situation - The monthly production of new energy vehicles is 1,251,000 units, down 26,000 units; the monthly sales volume is 1,226,000 units, down 11,000 units; the cumulative sales penetration rate is 42.74%, up 1.58 percentage points; the cumulative sales volume is 4,300,000 units, up 1,360,000 units; the monthly export volume is 200,000 units, up 42,000 units; the cumulative export volume is 642,000 units, up 221,000 units [2]. Option Situation - The total call position is 138,731 contracts, up 13,291 contracts; the total put position is 52,856 contracts, up 7,068 contracts; the put - call ratio of total positions is 38.1%, up 1.5977 percentage points; the at - the - money IV implied volatility is 0.29%, up 0.0329 percentage points [2]. Industry News - In April, China's total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.1% year - on - year, 0.5 percentage points faster than the previous month; the "trade - in" policy drove the growth of automotive and home appliance sales [2]. - The revised "Regulations on Practicing Thrift and Opposing Waste in Party and Government Organs" requires government - centralized procurement of official vehicles, giving priority to domestic and new energy vehicles [2]. - CATL's CEO predicts that the penetration rate of electric heavy - duty trucks will exceed 50% in the next three years [2]. - As of May 18, 98% of highway service areas in China have built charging facilities, and pilot projects for electric heavy - duty trucks will be carried out [2]. - It is believed that Chinese electric vehicles may replace Tesla in the European market [2]. - The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate has dropped by over 10,000 yuan this year, mainly due to weak downstream demand and traders' "dumping" [2]. - In April, China's power battery loading volume was 54.1 GWh, down 4.3% month - on - month and up 52.8% year - on - year [2].