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瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20250519
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-05-19 10:17
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - For corn, the recent price has been fluctuating downward, and it is recommended to participate in the short - term. The Northeast region has seen increased grain sales due to price spreads, and the new wheat harvest in North China is squeezing corn demand. The spring sowing progress in some areas is slower than last year [2]. - For corn starch, the supply - demand situation is weak, with continuous deep losses in the industry. The开机率 has decreased, and the downstream demand is poor. The inventory remains high. The recent futures price has continued to decline, and short - term participation is recommended [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Corn futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2330 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the monthly spread (9 - 1) is 99 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures is - 107435 hands, up 17159 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 212135 hands, up 10193 hands [2]. - Corn starch futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2669 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan; the monthly spread (7 - 9) is - 74 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures is - 3444 hands, up 62 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 26620 hands, unchanged [2]. - CBOT corn: The closing price of the active contract is 443 cents/bushel, down 5.25 cents; the total position is 1589429 contracts, up 40903 contracts; the non - commercial net long position is 18106 contracts, down 97793 contracts [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price is 2373.24 yuan/ton, down 1.66 yuan; the flat - hatch price at Jinzhou Port is 2320 yuan/ton, unchanged; the CIF price of imported corn is 2076.17 yuan/ton, up 1.4 yuan [2]. - Corn starch: The factory price in Changchun is 2670 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Weifang is 2880 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shijiazhuang is 2830 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Corn production forecasts: The predicted production in the US is 377.63 million tons, in Brazil is 126 million tons, in Argentina is 50 million tons, in China is 294.92 million tons, and in Ukraine is 26.8 million tons, all unchanged [2]. - Corn inventory: The inventory at southern ports is 143.9 tons, down 6.4 tons; at northern ports is 495 tons, down 13 tons; the deep - processing inventory is 452.8 tons, down 41.8 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Import and export: The monthly import volume of corn is 8 tons, unchanged; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 20.35 tons, down 0.93 tons [2]. - Production: The monthly production of feed is 2777.2 tons, down 66.4 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Feed: The monthly production of feed is 2777.2 tons, down 66.4 tons; the sample feed corn inventory days are 35.2 days, up 0.06 days; the deep - processing corn consumption is 118.55 tons, down 3.42 tons [2]. - Corn starch processing profit: In Shandong is - 134 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Hebei is - 96 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan; in Jilin is - 110 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Operating rate: The alcohol enterprise operating rate is 42.15%, up 0.93%; the starch enterprise operating rate is 57.17%, down 5.74% [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Corn historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility is 9.09%, up 0.06%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 8.24%, up 0.01% [2]. - Corn option implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 10.87%, down 0.33%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 10.87%, down 0.33% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Cofco plans to build the world's largest agricultural product export terminal in Brazil, which worries US farmers as they think China is shifting the agricultural supply chain to South America [2]. - Canadian agriculture is facing a highly uncertain spring - sowing season due to export restrictions to China and tariff impacts on exports to the US [2]. - The USDA supply - demand report predicts that the US corn ending inventory in 2025/26 will reach 1.8 billion bushels, which restricts market prices, and the Sino - US trade relationship also affects market sentiment [2].