流动性周度观察-20250519

Central Bank Operations - The central bank conducted a net withdrawal of CNY 475.1 billion from May 10 to May 16, 2025, with reverse repos of CNY 486 billion and a total withdrawal of CNY 836.1 billion[17] - As of the end of the week, the balance of reverse repos was CNY 486 billion, and the MLF balance was CNY 45,320 billion[17] Government Bond Issuance and Maturity - Government bond issuance increased to CNY 8,177.41 billion this week, with maturities of CNY 978.84 billion, resulting in net financing of CNY 7,158.10 billion[4] - Next week, government bond issuance is expected to be CNY 3,568.94 billion, with maturities of CNY 2,354.67 billion, leading to net financing of CNY 3,978.79 billion[4] Interbank Certificate of Deposit Market - The net financing of interbank certificates of deposit decreased to CNY -724.50 billion, with issuance at CNY 5,214 billion and maturities at CNY 5,938.50 billion[5] - The weighted issuance rate for interbank certificates of deposit was 1.64%, down 6.6 basis points from the previous week[5] Funding Rate Changes - The average DR001 rate decreased by 14.4 basis points to 1.45%, while the R001 rate fell by 15.1 basis points to 1.49%[6] - The overall trend in bill rates was upward, with the 6-month government bond repurchase rate averaging 1.24%, up 4 basis points from the previous week[6] Investment Recommendations - The bond market is currently in a defensive phase, with yields generally rising due to easing pressure on the economic fundamentals and a focus on interest rate bonds for recovery opportunities[11] - Investors are advised to remain flexible and consider trading opportunities in long-term bonds while managing duration risk[11]