合成橡胶产业日报-20250519

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Recently, the price of raw material butadiene has been rising due to strong demand and unexpected shutdown of some plants, significantly increasing the production cost of butadiene rubber. Driven by macro - positive news, the spot market price has strengthened, and the inventories of production and trading enterprises have decreased to varying degrees. However, some private butadiene rubber plants are expected to restart, increasing supply. - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises increased significantly. Most semi - steel tire enterprises have returned to normal levels, but overall sales are slow, and inventory continues to grow. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tires is in a restorative growth trend, but some enterprises face increased sales pressure, with continued growth in finished product inventory, insufficient orders, and overall production scheduling lower than the pre - holiday average. - The BR2507 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,000 - 12,700 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 12,240 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the position of the main contract is 19,529, down 958; the 6 - 7 spread of synthetic rubber is - 80 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 6,680 tons, down 300 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 12,500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 12,500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai is 12,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 12,600 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of synthetic rubber is 260 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of Brent crude oil is 65.41 US dollars/barrel, up 0.88 US dollars; WTI crude oil is 62.49 US dollars/barrel, up 0.87 US dollars; the price of naphtha CFR Japan is 565.38 US dollars/ton, down 6.62 US dollars; the price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 780 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of butadiene CFR China is 1220 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the mainstream price of butadiene in Shandong market is 11,350 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2]. - The weekly capacity of butadiene is 14.78 million tons, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate is 68.02%, down 1.33 percentage points; the port inventory of butadiene is 30,870 tons, down 6,030 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 47.28%, down 1.22 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 128,300 tons, up 16,500 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 79.2%, up 4.46 percentage points; the weekly production profit is - 1,233 yuan/ton, down 1,060 yuan; the social inventory is 32,200 tons, down 1,400 tons; the manufacturer's inventory is 26,650 tons, down 1,000 tons; the trader's inventory is 5,470 tons, down 430 tons [2]. - The weekly operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 78.33%, up 19.98 percentage points; the operating rate of all - steel tires is 65.09%, up 20.32 percentage points; the monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.69 million pieces, up 3.09 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 59.66 million pieces, up 11.56 million pieces; the inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong is 42.77 days, up 0.25 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong is 45.78 days, up 0.69 days [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of May 15, the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 32,100 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 4.26%. - As of May 15, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 71.21%, a month - on - month increase of 24.50 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.98 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 59.88%, a month - on - month increase of 18.19 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.40 percentage points. - In April 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 90,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of 19% from March and a year - on - year increase of about 9.4%. From January to April, the cumulative sales volume was about 355,000 vehicles, showing a year - on - year flat [2].