氯碱周报：SH：现货偏强，周度碱厂累库vv：关税释放利好，短期供需未见进一步矛盾下盘面反弹-20250520

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - For caustic soda, in the short term, the supply pressure is limited during the concentrated maintenance period, and the demand from the alumina sector has improved. Supported by the fundamentals and positive macro - drivers from the easing of Sino - US tariffs, the spot price is strong. However, attention should be paid to the price acceptance of non - aluminum sectors and the valuation of caustic soda after the reduction of coal and electricity costs. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, with the resistance level of the near - month contract at around 2550 [3]. - For PVC, stimulated by the progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations, the domestic commodity atmosphere is positive. In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction of PVC is limited due to concentrated maintenance, limited inventory pressure compared to the same period, and the expectation of rush exports of PVC products. But in the medium - to - long term, PVC still shows obvious over - supply pressure due to the lack of effective boost in the real estate market. It is recommended to wait and see, with the resistance level of the 09 contract at around 5150 [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Caustic Soda - Caustic Soda Futures and Spot: The price of caustic soda has fluctuated due to various factors such as macro - policies, supply - demand changes, and alumina procurement prices. Recently, the easing of Sino - US tariff conflicts and the increase in alumina procurement willingness have led to a stronger market [7]. - Caustic Soda Profit: The current integrated profit is at a relatively high level in the same period of the past three years [13]. - Caustic Soda Supply: As of May 15, the national and Shandong regional weighted average operating rates decreased. In the second quarter, more maintenance is expected, and the operating rate will decline compared to the first quarter. The inventory has decreased from the high point, and the current supply - demand pressure is limited, supporting the increase in the spot price [24]. - Caustic Soda Device Dynamics: Many companies in different regions have carried out maintenance or production capacity adjustments, and there are also plans for new production capacity to be put into operation in 2025 [25]. - Alumina: From the end of 2024 to 2025, there are plans to put into operation 1230 million tons of alumina production capacity, with an estimated annual production capacity growth rate of around 10%. The new production lines stimulate the demand for caustic soda, and Shandong alumina plants have continuously raised the purchase price, supporting the spot price of caustic soda. However, the medium - term profit of alumina is still worrying [29][36]. - Bauxite: The price has declined, which may further drive down the price of alumina [37]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The weekly production remains at a high level [43]. - Non - Aluminum Downstream: The industry is fragmented, and the impact of tariffs needs to be monitored [47]. - Caustic Soda Export: The spot price has risen, and the estimated export profit compression window may close [54]. 3.2 Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - PVC Futures and Spot: The price of PVC has fluctuated due to factors such as energy - saving and carbon - reduction news, supply - demand changes, and macro - sentiment. Recently, the easing of Sino - US tariffs and the limited supply - demand contradiction during the concentrated maintenance period have led to a price rebound [61]. - PVC Profit: The overall industry profit is relatively low [67]. - Calcium Carbide: The supply - demand contradiction is prominent, the industry profit is under pressure, and the driving force for PVC is limited [72]. - PVC Supply: In April 2025, the production of PVC powder was 1.9264 million tons, and the cumulative production from January to April was 7.9262 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1%. As of May 15, the overall operating rate of PVC powder decreased. The second quarter is the concentrated period of seasonal maintenance, and the operating rate will decline compared to the first quarter [83]. - PVC Device Dynamics: Many companies have carried out maintenance, and there are also plans for new production capacity to be put into operation in the future [84]. - PVC Downstream Demand: The two major downstream sectors of PVC, profiles and pipes, face great pressure. The real estate sector still has a negative impact on demand. The hard - product performance is average, and the soft - product performance is relatively better. The downstream orders are significantly lower than the same period in the past five years, and both raw material and finished - product inventories are at high levels [92]. - Real Estate Data: The new construction of real estate is still weak, and attention should be paid to whether housing prices can stabilize effectively [93]. - PVC Inventory: After the festival, the inventory continued to decline, and the pressure compared to the same period was limited [100]. - PVC Outer Market: As of May 15, the Asian PVC market price was stable on a weekly basis. India's high imports are expected to continue, which theoretically benefits China's exports. However, the long - term implementation of India's BIS and anti - dumping duties will have a negative impact on PVC [118]. - PVC Import and Export: The US tariff has an impact on the export of terminal products. The BIS extension in India may benefit exports in the short term, but long - term policies need further attention [118].