大越期货尿素早报-20250520

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent urea futures market has rebounded and is now in a volatile state. The overall fundamentals are neutral, with the UR2509 contract basis indicating a slight positive trend, while the UR comprehensive inventory shows a negative sign. The main contract's 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above it, with the main position being net long and increasing. It is expected that the urea main contract will show a short - term rebound, with high daily production, a short - term decline in inventory, improving agricultural demand, and stable prices after the export policy is implemented. The report predicts that the urea market will fluctuate today [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - Fundamentals: The urea futures market has rebounded and is volatile. Supply - side: The operating rate and daily production are at a high level, and new facilities have been put into operation recently, with a rapid short - term decline in inventory. Demand - side: In industrial demand, the operating rate of compound fertilizers has significantly declined, and compound fertilizer inventories have increased, while the operating rate of melamine has rapidly increased, and agricultural demand is gradually improving. The international urea price is strong, and export profits are high but restricted by export policies. After the export policy was announced on May 15 - 16, the urea price has stabilized after a sharp increase around May Day. The spot price of the delivery product is 1890 (-40), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - Basis: The basis of the UR2509 contract is 13, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.7%, indicating a positive trend [4]. - Inventory: The UR comprehensive inventory is 950,000 tons (-248,000), indicating a negative trend [4]. - Futures Market: The 20 - day moving average of the main UR contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, indicating a positive trend [4]. - Main Position: The main UR position is net long and increasing, indicating a positive trend [4]. - Expectation: The main urea contract is expected to rebound in the short term. With high daily production, a short - term decline in inventory, improving agricultural demand, and stable prices after the export policy is implemented, the UR market is expected to fluctuate today [4]. - Leverage Factors: Positive factors include the implementation of the export policy and the gradual improvement of agricultural demand; negative factors include high daily production and the commissioning of new facilities. The main logic is the high daily production on the supply side and the marginal changes in demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market Quotes | Region | Price | Change | Main Contract | Price | Change | Inventory Type | Quantity | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot Delivery Product | 1890 | 0 | 09 Contract | 1877 | 0 | Warehouse Receipts | 7355 | 0 | | Shandong Spot | 1890 | 0 | Basis | 13 | 0 | UR Comprehensive Inventory | 95 | 0 | | Henan Spot | 1910 | 0 | UR01 | 1788 | 0 | UR Manufacturer Inventory | 81.7 | 0 | | FOB China | 2562 | - | UR05 | 1849 | 0 | UR Port Inventory | 13.3 | 0 | | - | - | - | UR09 | 1877 | 0 | - | - | - | [6] Urea Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Production Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 2245.5 | - | 1956.81 | 448.38 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | - | | 2019 | - | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 4906 | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [10]