建信期货棉花日报-20250520

Industry Information - Reported industry: Cotton [1] - Report date: May 20, 2025 [2] - Research analysts: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] Core Views - Fundamental changes are limited, and Zhengzhou cotton is oscillating and adjusting. The latest cotton price index for Grade 328 is 14,566 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The cotton yarn market has shown some improvement recently, with downstream traders and weavers restocking, leading to a reduction in spinners' inventory, which is currently at a moderately low level. The cotton fabric market remains sluggish, with only a limited number of US orders returning, and prices remaining stable overall, with insufficient market transactions [7]. - Overseas, the USDA's weekly export sales report shows an improvement in week-on-week signings, while shipments are down week-on-week but still at a peak. US cotton planting progress is slower than the same period last year, and the drought level has dropped to the five-year average, with the outer market oscillating within a wide range. In the domestic market, the overall planting of new cotton is going well, with the expected planting area stable and slightly increasing, and the overall growth is satisfactory. Thanks to restocking by weavers and traders, the inventory of cotton yarn products has decreased again, but there is no obvious improvement in the fabric sector. With the recent weakening of macroeconomic pressure, Zhengzhou cotton has filled the gap, but the overall weak fundamental situation remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the performance at the upper resistance level, and trading should be range-bound [8]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Zhengzhou cotton is oscillating and adjusting, with the latest 328-grade cotton price index at 14,566 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton from the previous day. The cotton yarn market has improved, with spinners' inventory at a moderately low level, while the cotton fabric market remains sluggish [7]. - Overseas, US cotton planting progress is slow, and the drought level has dropped to the five-year average, with the outer market oscillating widely. Domestically, new cotton planting is going well, and the expected planting area is stable and slightly increasing. The inventory of cotton yarn products has decreased, but the fabric sector shows no obvious improvement. With weakened macroeconomic pressure, Zhengzhou cotton has filled the gap, but the weak fundamentals remain. Range-bound trading is recommended [8]. 2. Industry News - According to the China Cotton Association's survey on the predicted cotton planting area and sowing progress in 2025, the expected national cotton planting area in 2025 is 44.823 million mu, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, with the growth rate expanding by 1.4 percentage points compared to the previous period. Among them, the planting area in Xinjiang is expected to be 40.9 million mu, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, with the growth rate expanding by 1.5 percentage points; the planting area in the Yellow River Basin is expected to be 2.194 million mu, a year-on-year decrease of 6.4%, with the decline rate narrowing by 5.4 percentage points; the planting area in the Yangtze River Basin is expected to be 1.306 million mu, a year-on-year decrease of 20%, with the decline rate expanding by 3.8 percentage points [9]. 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple charts related to cotton, including price indices, spot and futures prices, basis changes, spreads between different contract months, commercial and industrial inventories, and exchange rates [16][18][19]