Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly operate with a weak and volatile trend. The supply of soda ash is declining from a high level, the improvement in terminal demand is limited, and although the inventory is continuously declining, it is still at a high level in the same period. The pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][4]. Summary by Directory Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of soda ash futures is 1284 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe is 1320 yuan/ton, and the main basis is 36 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main contract has decreased by 0.39%, the price in Shahe has remained unchanged, and the basis has increased by 16.13% [5]. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1320 yuan/ton, remaining flat compared to the previous day [11]. - The profit of the heavy soda ash joint - alkali method in East China is 207.50 yuan/ton, and the profit of the heavy soda ash ammonia - alkali method in North China is - 14.60 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash is at a low level in the same period [14]. - The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 80.27%, showing a stable recovery. The weekly output of soda ash is 67.77 tons, with heavy soda ash at 36.90 tons, and the output has declined from a historical high [17][19]. - From 2023 to 2025, there have been significant expansions in soda ash production capacity. In 2023, the newly added capacity was 640 tons, in 2024 it was 180 tons, and the planned newly added capacity in 2025 is 750 tons, with an actual planned production of 60 tons [21]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 98.42% [24]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 15.67 tons, and the operating rate of 75% continues to decline, resulting in weak demand for soda ash. The price of photovoltaic glass has stabilized, the daily melting volume in production has rebounded to 9.1 tons, and the production has stabilized [27][30]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 171.20 tons, including 88.33 tons of heavy soda ash, and the inventory is at a high level in the same period [33]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheets from 2017 to 2024E show the changes in effective capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand differences, and growth rates of various indicators in the soda ash industry over the years [34].
大越期货纯碱早报-20250520
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-05-20 02:03