建信期货豆粕日报-20250520

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Report date: May 20, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review Futures Contracts - For the soybean meal 2505 contract, the previous settlement price was 2752, the opening price was 2731, the highest price was 2740, the lowest price was 2700, the closing price was 2700, down 52 (-1.89%) from the previous day. The trading volume was 2054, and the open interest decreased by 15024 to 0 [6]. - For the soybean meal 2507 contract, the previous settlement price was 2744, the opening price was 2738, the highest price was 2748, the lowest price was 2720, the closing price was 2725, down 19 (-0.69%). The trading volume was 75791, and the open interest increased by 1217 to 522751 [6]. - For the soybean meal 2509 contract, the previous settlement price was 2902, the opening price was 2895, the highest price was 2910, the lowest price was 2880, the closing price was 2886, down 16 (-0.55%). The trading volume was 1048384, and the open interest increased by 35113 to 2571732 [6]. USDA May Report on US Soybeans - Supply: The new - season US soybean planting area is about 83.5 million acres, a year - on - year decrease of 3.6 million acres (4.1%); the harvested area is about 82.7 million acres, a year - on - year decrease of 3.4 million acres (3.9%); the estimated yield per acre is 52.5 bushels, a year - on - year increase of about 3.6%. The estimated production in the 25/26 season is 4.34 billion bushels, a year - on - year decrease of about 0.6% [6]. - Demand: The estimated export volume is 1.815 billion bushels, a year - on - year decrease of 1.9%; the estimated crushing volume is 2.49 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of 2.9% [6]. - Ending inventory: The ending inventory in the 25/26 season is estimated to be 295 million bushels, a significant decrease from the previous season's estimated 350 million bushels, indicating a return to a relatively balanced supply - demand fundamental [6]. Market Reaction - After the report was released, US soybeans rose slightly. Although the data was bullish, there are significant uncertainties, especially regarding the continuation of the agreement after the 90 - day exemption period between China and the US and the biodiesel policy [6]. - Despite the balanced supply - demand of US soybeans, the South American soybeans, especially Brazilian soybeans, still have a relatively loose supply situation. Currently, the CBOT soybean price is expected to have strong support below, and the upward potential depends on weather changes in the next 2 - 3 months [6]. Group 3: Industry News - As of May 15, the soybean harvest rate in Argentina in the 2024/25 season was 66%, ahead of 61% in the same period last year, and up from 45% the previous week [7]. - As of the week ending May 12, the rapeseed planting rate in Saskatchewan, Canada was 29%, up from 9.6% the previous week. As of the week ending May 13, the rapeseed planting rate in Alberta was 23.7%, up from 5%. Rapeseed planting in Manitoba has just started [18]. - As of the week ending May 11, Canada's rapeseed exports decreased by 29.5% to 130,000 tons from the previous week. From August 1, 2024, to May 11, 2025, Canada's rapeseed exports were 8.01 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 66.5%. As of May 11, Canada's rapeseed commercial inventory was 1.0951 million tons [18]