贵金属日评-20250520

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical situation, such as the lack of consensus in Russia - Ukraine direct negotiations, European sanctions on Russia, and Trump's trade policies, boosts the safe - haven demand for gold, with its mid - line upward trend remaining good, but silver is relatively weak due to industrial demand pressure [4][5]. - The long - and mid - term factors driving up the gold price will continue to exist, including the restructuring of the global trade and monetary system, the recession prospects of the US and the global economy, and the volatility of the US financial market. It is recommended that investors maintain a long - position mentality and participate in trading with medium - to - low positions [5]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Precious Metals Market Quotes and Outlook - Intraday Quotes: The lack of consensus in Russia - Ukraine direct negotiations, European sanctions on Russia, and US threats of tariffs have pushed up the safe - haven demand, driving the London gold price above $3200 per ounce. The support level of London gold at $3130 - $3200 per ounce should be observed. Gold's safe - haven demand is greatly enhanced, with increased volatility but a good mid - line upward trend. Silver is relatively weak due to industrial demand pressure. Attention should be paid to China's April economic data and the preliminary May PMI values of Europe and the US this week [4]. - Domestic Precious Metals Quotes: The Shanghai Gold Index closed at 756.92, up 0.55%; the Shanghai Silver Index closed at 8153, up 0.40%; Gold T + D closed at 754.29, up 0.98%; Silver T + D closed at 8115, up 0.66% [5]. - Mid - line Quotes: Trump's tariff measures in early April shocked the global market and depressed financial assets. However, due to the damage to the US dollar's credit, the triple safe - haven demand pushed the London gold price above $3500 per ounce on April 22. Although the gold price has corrected, the mid - line upward trend remains good. It is recommended that investors maintain a long - position mentality and participate in trading with medium - to - low positions, and short - biased traders can consider the "long gold, short silver" arbitrage [5]. II. Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets [7][9][11]. III. Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating from "Aaa" to "Aa1" due to concerns about the sustainability of US debt and changed the rating outlook from "negative" to "stable" [17]. - The US consumer confidence in May further deteriorated, and the one - year inflation expectation soared to the highest level since the end of 1981. The University of Michigan consumer confidence index dropped from 52.2 in April to 50.8 in May, and the 12 - month inflation expectation rose from 6.5% in April to 7.3% [17]. - US Treasury Secretary Besent said that President Trump will impose tariffs on countries lacking "good - will" in trade negotiations at the rates announced on April 2. The definition of "good - will" and the time of imposing tariffs are not clear [18]. - China's Ministry of Commerce announced the final anti - dumping investigation results on imported copolymerized polyoxymethylene from the US, the EU, Taiwan (China), and Japan, imposing anti - dumping duties ranging from 3.8% to 74.9%, with the highest rate on US companies [18].