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大越期货沪铜早报-20250520
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-05-20 02:12

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of copper are neutral as smelting enterprises are reducing production, the scrap copper policy has been relaxed, and the manufacturing PMI in April was 50.4%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month but still in the expansion range [2]. - The basis shows a premium of the spot price over the futures price, which is neutral [2]. - Copper inventories decreased by 5050 tons to 174325 tons on May 19, while SHFE copper inventories increased by 27437 tons to 108142 tons compared to last week, which is neutral [2]. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, indicating a bullish signal [2]. - The net position of the main players is short, and the short position is decreasing, showing a bearish signal [2]. - With the slowdown of the Fed's interest rate cuts, the reduction of high - level inventories, and the easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations, copper prices are expected to move in a volatile manner [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - The overall assessment of copper's fundamentals, basis, inventory, price trend, and main positions shows a mixed situation, with the expectation of volatile copper prices [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - The logic involves domestic policy easing and the escalation of trade wars, but specific details of利多 and利空 are not fully provided [3]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it will be in a tight balance [20]. - The China annual supply - demand balance table shows the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance of copper from 2018 to 2024 [22]. Other Information - The data source of the report is Wind [10].