建信期货聚烯烃日报-20250520

Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: May 20, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Core View - After the macro - sentiment fades, plastics and PP rise and then fall back. There is still pressure at the upper gap. The spot market atmosphere warms up, but the actual high - price transactions are limited. The improvement of downstream product factory orders remains to be seen. Polyolefins mainly digest the previous gains [6] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - Market Performance: L2509 of linear low - density polyethylene (LLDPE) opened lower, fluctuated during the session, and closed down at 7,238 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27 yuan/ton (- 0.37%), with a trading volume of 320,000 lots and a decrease in positions by 4,002 to 514,088 lots. The main PP contract 09 closed at 7,078 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan, a decline of 0.62%, with positions decreasing by 4,841 lots to 414,800 lots [6] - Supply Side: Upstream petrochemical plants have intensive maintenance, resulting in short - term supply - side pressure, and the maintenance loss is at a high level compared to the same period. From May to June, PE plans to add 700,000 tons of new production capacity, and the supply pressure will be realized in the third quarter. There is no PP production plan in May, and in June, attention should be paid to the commissioning of the 500,000 - ton/year Sinopec Zhenhai Refining & Chemical plant [6] - Demand Side: The demand for agricultural films changes from peak to off - peak. The operating loads of packaging, film, and injection molding industries have declined month - on - month. All indicators in the PP downstream areas are weaker than the same period last year. Enterprises that suspended production due to high tariffs have gradually resumed operation this week, and the phenomenon of rush - exporting within the 90 - day buffer period may drive demand improvement [6] 2. Industry News - Inventory: On May 19, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 830,000 tons, an increase of 45,000 tons from the previous working day, a growth rate of 5.73%. The inventory at the same time last year was 920,000 tons [7] - PP Market: The PP market was weakly sorted, with some prices slightly adjusted down by 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The weakening of PP futures dragged down the spot market atmosphere. Traders actively sold goods, and some offers were slightly loosened to promote transactions, but the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream factories was not high [7] - PE Market: The PE market prices continued to show a mixed trend, with some prices falling. In North China, some linear PE prices fell by 10 - 50 yuan/ton, some high - pressure PE prices fell by 50 yuan/ton, and some low - pressure PE prices fell by 20 - 50 yuan/ton [7][8]