纯碱、玻璃日报-20250520

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - For soda ash, the supply and demand are both decreasing, and the inventory accumulation situation persists. The long - term supply pattern is in surplus, and the demand is difficult to increase. The supply at the low level in the market is maintained for a short time, and the futures price lacks the power to rise continuously. The supply - demand contradiction will become prominent again, and the price will enter the downward channel again, with the futures market likely to show a weak and fluctuating trend [8]. - For glass, the overall profit in the float glass production field has increased slightly, and the production volume remains relatively stable. The demand market is relatively dull, and the downstream inventory has accumulated. The futures price is approaching the production cost line, and the cost support may appear in the short - term. The short - term market has an expectation of rush - exporting, which brings some support to the market, but the supply - demand game is still the key factor for the subsequent trend [9][10]. Summary by Section 1. Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Data on May 19th: The main soda ash futures contract SA509 opened low and went lower, with a closing price of 1,284 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton, and a decline of 1.91%, and an increase of 116,309 lots in positions. The FG509 glass futures contract closed at 1,018 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton, with a gain of 0.19%, and a decrease of 54,017 lots in positions [7]. - Soda Ash Situation: The weekly output of soda ash in China dropped to 677,700 tons in the week of May 15th, a month - on - month decrease of 8.52%, and the capacity utilization rate dropped to 80.27%. The enterprise inventory of heavy soda ash was 880,000 tons, continuing the inventory accumulation trend. The market supply is in a long - term surplus pattern, and the demand is difficult to increase, so the price will likely decline [8]. - Glass Situation: The overall profit in the float glass production field has increased slightly, and the production volume remains stable. The demand market is dull, and the downstream inventory has accumulated. The futures price is approaching the cost line, and the cost support may appear in the short - term. The short - term market has an expectation of rush - exporting, which brings some support to the market [9][10]. 2. Industry News - Real Estate: In April, the sales price of new commercial residential buildings in first - tier cities was flat month - on - month, down 2.1% year - on - year, and the decline narrowed by 0.7 percentage points compared with the previous month. The sales price of second - hand residential buildings in first - tier cities decreased by 0.2% month - on - month, down 3.2% year - on - year, and the decline narrowed by 0.9 percentage points compared with the previous month [11]. - Manufacturing Loans: From January to April, the Export - Import Bank of China invested more than 180 billion yuan in medium - and long - term loans for the manufacturing industry, and the balance of medium - and long - term loans for the manufacturing industry at the end of April was 1.8 trillion yuan [11]. - Sodium Bicarbonate Market: The sodium bicarbonate market in Henan is running weakly, and the downstream makes rigid demand purchases. The mainstream ex - factory price of food - grade sodium bicarbonate is estimated to be between 1,180 - 1,260 yuan/ton [11]. - Float Glass Market: The prices of the domestic float glass market are mainly stable, with some fluctuations. The prices in North China have fluctuated, the prices in East China have decreased in some areas, the prices of colored glass in Central China have increased in some factories, the prices in South China are stable, the prices in Northeast China have decreased, and the prices in Southwest China have fluctuated [11]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the price trends of soda ash and glass active contracts, the weekly output and enterprise inventory of soda ash, the market price of heavy soda ash in Central China, and the production volume of flat glass, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [17][18][16].