大越期货菜粕早报-20250520

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2460 - 2520. It was affected by the low inventory of imported rapeseed and the tariff increase on Canadian oil residue cakes, leading to a short - term rise followed by a decline. Influenced by soybean meal, its price will return to range - bound oscillation in the short term [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Hints - Rapeseed meal oscillates and declines, affected by soybean meal and technical consolidation. The low operation rate of rapeseed meal oil mills and low inventory support the market. Spot demand is gradually picking up. Although the arrival of imported rapeseed is increasing, the short - term inventory of oil mills is under no pressure. The tariff increase on Canadian oil residue cakes is a short - term positive factor, but the positive impact may be limited as there is no tariff increase on rapeseed imports [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is recovering from the off - season, with tight spot market supply and rising demand. Canadian rapeseed annual production has slightly decreased, supporting the foreign futures market. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing. Global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to reduced production in the EU and lower - than - expected production in Canada. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the future geopolitical conflict may rise, which still supports commodities [11]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - Likely to Rise: China's tariff increase on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills [12]. - Likely to Fall: The arrival of imported rapeseed has increased since March; the outcome of China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is uncertain, and rapeseed meal demand is in the seasonal off - season [12]. - Current Main Logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Base Difference: The spot price is 2420, with a base difference of - 89, indicating a discount to the futures price, which is bearish [9]. - Inventory: Rapeseed meal inventory is 29,000 tons, down 19.44% week - on - week from 36,000 tons last week and 9.38% year - on - year from 32,000 tons in the same period last year, which is bullish [9]. - Market Trend: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward, which is bearish [9]. - Domestic Rapeseed Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: Data from 2014 - 2023 shows changes in harvest area, initial inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [24]. - Domestic Rapeseed Meal Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: Data from 2014 - 2023 shows changes in initial inventory, production, total supply, feed demand, total demand, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [25]. - Imported Rapeseed: The arrival volume in May was lower than expected, and the import cost showed a strong and volatile trend [26]. - Aquatic Product Prices: Aquatic fish prices have slightly rebounded, while shrimp and shellfish prices have remained stable [38]. 3.5 Position Data - The main long positions have decreased, but capital has flowed in, which is bullish [9]. - Rapeseed meal futures and spot prices from May 8th to May 19th are presented, including the main 2509 contract, far - month 2601 contract, and spot prices in Fujian [14]. - The trading volume and average trading price of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from May 8th to May 19th are provided, along with the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal [13]. - Rapeseed meal warehouse receipts from May 7th to May 19th are shown, including the change compared to the previous day [16].