建信期货铝日报-20250520

Group 1: Report Information - Report Date: May 20, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Research Team: Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - On May 19, Shanghai aluminum rose and then fell, closing slightly down 0.2% at 20,110. The total open interest of the index decreased by 14,465 to 521,530 lots. The spot import loss remained at around - 1,300 yuan/ton. Alumina prices rose sharply due to concerns about bauxite supply, but the substantial impact is limited. In the short - term, it is considered strong under the impetus of sentiment and funds, while the medium - term surplus trend remains unchanged. Enterprises can wait for high - level hedging opportunities. For electrolytic aluminum, supply pressure is limited due to capacity ceiling restrictions and insufficient recovery of Yunnan's hydropower. On the demand side, inventory slightly accumulated on Monday, and the approaching off - season may lead to a decline in demand and affect inventory performance. Overall, the relaxed macro - atmosphere and continuous unexpected inventory drawdown support the strong performance of aluminum prices, but the increase in absolute prices has inhibited downstream consumption, and enterprises can still lock in smelting profits at high prices [8] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Aluminum Market Performance: On May 19, Shanghai aluminum reached a high of 20,300 during the session but then declined, closing slightly down 0.2% at 20,110. The total open interest of the index decreased by 14,465 to 521,530 lots, and the spot import loss remained at around - 1,300 yuan/ton [8] - Alumina Market: Alumina prices rose sharply, with many far - month contracts closing at the daily limit. The main reason is the suspension notice for a mining area in Guinea, which has raised concerns about bauxite supply. The short - term is strong under sentiment and funds, but the medium - term surplus trend remains unchanged, and enterprises can wait for high - level hedging opportunities [8] - Electrolytic Aluminum: Supply pressure is limited due to capacity ceiling restrictions and insufficient recovery of Yunnan's hydropower. On the demand side, inventory slightly accumulated on Monday, and the approaching off - season may lead to a decline in demand and affect inventory performance. Enterprises can lock in smelting profits at high prices [8] Group 5: Industry News - US - UK Trade Agreement: On May 8, 2025, the US and the UK reached a bilateral trade agreement. The US will cancel the 25% tariff on UK steel and aluminum products and reduce the import tariff on UK cars from 27.5% to 10% for the first 100,000 cars per year. In return, the UK will cancel the import tariff on US ethanol and open the beef market. The US still maintains a 10% benchmark tariff on most UK goods [9] - Hydro - Nemak Cooperation: Norwegian aluminum giant Hydro and global aluminum die - casting manufacturer Nemak will cooperate to develop decarbonized cast aluminum products for the automotive industry. They have signed a letter of intent to increase the proportion of recycled aluminum at Hydro's Brazilian refinery and shift to cleaner energy sources to reduce the carbon footprint of aluminum castings. Hydro's primary casting aluminum alloy already has a low carbon footprint, and they aim to further reduce it by 25% [10] - Guinea's Mining License Revocation: Guinea is planning to revoke the mining license of Emirates Global Aluminium. Since October 2024, the export and mining activities of its subsidiary in Guinea have been suspended. The mining area covers 690 square kilometers with an estimated bauxite reserve of 400 million tons. This reflects the trend of resource - rich countries strengthening control over minerals [10]