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内外套日报-20250520
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-05-20 03:28

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The report analyzes import profits, internal - external price differences, and trading strategies across multiple industries including agriculture, energy, metals, and precious metals. It also considers the impacts of tariffs, supply - demand, and exchange rates on these factors [1][3]. Group 3: Industry - Specific Summaries Agriculture - Cotton: Due to trade wars, sanctions, and tariff policies, the relationship between domestic and foreign cotton markets has changed. After tariff cuts, the strength of Zhengzhou cotton and US cotton has reversed. Continued attention to tariff policy changes is recommended [1]. - Oils and Oilseeds: These commodities have a high import dependency. Their international supply - demand balance is transmitted to the domestic market through imports, and the focus should be on the difference in domestic and foreign supply - demand rhythms [1]. Iron Ore - In the short - term, the shipping and arrival of iron ore are increasing, iron - water production is oscillating at a high level. With strong overseas macro - disturbances and relatively stable domestic macro - conditions, the ore price center has declined, and there are fewer short - term internal - external price difference opportunities. In the long - run, the global supply - demand balance is more surplus compared to the Chinese market [1]. Energy - SC: The internal - external price relationship is weakening. - FU: In summer, the internal - external relationship remains weak, and the internal - external price difference of FU09 is compressing. - LU: The external crack spread basis has rebounded, and with the cancellation of warehouse receipts, the internal - external relationship is strengthening. - PG: After tariff relaxation, the external price has risen. The internal - external price difference has decreased significantly [1]. - PX: Domestic PX operating rates have declined, and there are still some overseas maintenance. As TA restarts, the PX de - stocking rate is expected to increase. The current internal - external price difference has converged significantly, and the valuation is becoming neutral, so it is recommended to wait and see [1]. Metals - Aluminum: Close the internal - external reverse arbitrage position to take profit. - Tin: As overseas and Myanmar mines resume production smoothly, pay attention to internal - external positive arbitrage opportunities. The LME inventory has been low recently. - Zinc: Close the internal - external reverse arbitrage position [1]. Precious Metals - Gold: The RMB exchange rate has an impact on the domestic price, and the internal - external price ratio has dropped rapidly. The end of the domestic consumption peak season and the Diwali - supported gold consumption in India have also contributed to this decline. - Silver: The spot discount has widened, and the import window is closed [3].