芳烃橡胶早报-20250520

Report Overview - Report Title: Aromatics and Rubber Morning Report - Report Date: May 20, 2025 - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Views - For PTA, the inventory de - stocking process will gradually shift to PX, and attention should be paid to opportunities to shrink the processing fee of far - month TA [2]. - For MEG, due to the unexpected reduction in oil - based supply and the short - term resilience of demand, the de - stocking of port inventory is expected to be more significant, and attention should be paid to phased positive spread opportunities [3]. - For polyester staple fiber, although the inventory has decreased month - on - month, the overall high supply and weak downstream profits mean that the fundamentals are unlikely to improve significantly, but the processing fee on the futures market has been compressed to a relatively low level, so it is expected to remain weak [3]. - For natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber, with a slight reduction in national visible inventory, a small rebound in the price of Thai cup lump rubber, and the easing of the trade war, the recommended strategy is to wait and see [3]. Summary by Product PTA - Price and Spread Changes: From May 13 - 19, the price of PTA domestic spot fluctuated. The PTA processing fee generally increased, and the polyester gross profit also showed certain fluctuations. On May 19, the average daily trading basis of PTA spot was 2509(+198) [2][3]. - Industry Conditions: The near - end TA start - up rate increased month - on - month, the polyester start - up rate continued to rise, the inventory continued to be de - stocked, the basis strengthened overall, and the spot processing fee decreased month - on - month but remained at a relatively high level. The domestic PX start - up rate declined, overseas maintenance was implemented, PXN and its structure continued to strengthen, the efficiency of isomerization and disproportionation improved, and the aromatics price spread between the US and Asia declined [3]. MEG - Price and Spread Changes: From May 13 - 19, the price of MEG foreign and domestic spot fluctuated slightly. The MEG cash flow (ethylene) and profit continued to expand. On May 19, the negotiation price of MEG spot was around 4569 - 4573, and the basis was around 09(+92) [3]. - Industry Conditions: Near - end domestic oil - based MEG had unexpected shutdowns, coal - based MEG had planned maintenance, the start - up rate declined significantly. With less arrivals, port inventory was de - stocked, the downstream inventory level declined, the basis strengthened, and the profit and price ratio continued to expand [3]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Price and Spread Changes: From May 13 - 19, the price of polyester staple fiber products fluctuated slightly. The profit of staple fiber and pure polyester yarn also showed certain changes. On May 19, the spot price was around 6645, and the market basis was around 06 - 20 [3]. - Industry Conditions: Near - end Shanghai Yuanfang and Jiangyin Youcai increased their production capacity, the start - up rate increased to 96.2%, production and sales improved month - on - month, and inventory was de - stocked. On the demand side, the start - up rate of polyester yarn remained stable, raw material inventory increased, and inventory decreased month - on - month, but the profit declined [3]. Natural Rubber and 20 - grade Rubber - Price and Spread Changes: From May 13 - 19, the prices of natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber products fluctuated. The price difference between different varieties also changed. For example, on May 19, the daily change of the RU main contract was +100, and the weekly change was - 20 [3]. - Industry Conditions: The national visible inventory decreased slightly, the price of Thai cup lump rubber rebounded slightly, and the trade war situation eased [3]. Styrene - Price and Spread Changes: From May 13 - 19, the prices of raw materials such as ethylene and pure benzene, as well as styrene and its downstream products, fluctuated. The domestic profit of styrene and its downstream products also changed. For example, on May 19, the daily change of styrene (CFR China) was +15 [3].