燃料油早报-20250520

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the high - sulfur cracking spread strengthened, the 380 near - end ran strongly, the monthly spread strengthened again, and the basis fluctuated. The low - sulfur cracking spread oscillated at a high level, the near - end monthly spread strengthened, and the basis continued to strengthen [4]. - This week, Singapore's on - land inventory continued to decline, ARA ports' inventory decreased, and the US residual oil inventory increased significantly. Singapore's high - sulfur floating storage inventory decreased, with overall inventory decline. The Middle East floating storage inventory oscillated at a high level, and Saudi Arabia's exports were neutral year - on - year. Fujairah's floating storage inventory oscillated, and European floating storage inventory decreased [4]. - Recently, the low - sulfur market has strengthened. Attention should be paid to the subsequent fulfillment of supply increments and the change in the low - sulfur export volume of Dangote Refinery. The high - sulfur cracking spread is running strongly, with profits higher than the historical average. This year, in China, affected by consumption tax deductions and tariff adjustments, the refinery feed demand for fuel oil has dropped significantly. The bunker fuel demand is expected to be weaker year - on - year due to tariff impacts. In the short term, the bunker fuel market has become prosperous due to rush shipments. Subsequently, attention should be paid to the power generation demand and procurement demand, as well as the opportunity for the high - sulfur cracking spread to decline in the medium term [5]. 3) Summary by Catalog Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data | Variety | 2025/05/13 | 2025/05/14 | 2025/05/15 | 2025/05/16 | 2025/05/19 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 408.43 | 406.15 | 399.03 | 402.97 | 407.04 | 4.07 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 452.25 | 451.49 | 442.66 | 447.36 | 446.85 | - 0.51 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | - 1.39 | - 1.58 | - 0.90 | - 1.01 | - 0.62 | 0.39 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 602.56 | 606.04 | 598.55 | 595.17 | 593.82 | - 1.35 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 150.31 | - 154.55 | - 155.89 | - 147.81 | - 146.97 | 0.84 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 16.66 | 17.57 | 18.05 | 16.77 | 16.37 | - 0.40 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 43.82 | 45.34 | 43.63 | 44.39 | 39.81 | - 4.58 | [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data | Variety | 2025/05/13 | 2025/05/14 | 2025/05/15 | 2025/05/16 | 2025/05/19 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 427.25 | 433.27 | 424.56 | 428.16 | 428.78 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 437.53 | 442.48 | 433.13 | 436.13 | 436.10 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 485.06 | 498.06 | 486.28 | 486.45 | 487.21 | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | 79.84 | 81.58 | 79.90 | 79.79 | 79.83 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | 2.93 | 2.53 | 3.23 | 3.71 | 3.27 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 105.76 | - 105.63 | - 104.98 | - 104.00 | - 103.53 | [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Variety | 2025/05/13 | 2025/05/14 | 2025/05/15 | 2025/05/16 | 2025/05/19 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 428.64 | 432.78 | 425.82 | 432.24 | 431.06 | - 1.18 | | FOB VLSFO | 495.51 | 511.73 | 502.70 | 499.95 | 499.38 | - 0.57 | | 380 Basis | 1.00 | - 1.45 | - 0.45 | 0.25 | - 0.45 | - 0.70 | | High - Sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 8.2 | 7.9 | 9.8 | 8.6 | 9.7 | 1.1 | | Low - Sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 16.3 | 17.0 | 17.5 | 14.7 | 14.5 | - 0.2 | [3] Domestic FU Data | Variety | 2025/05/13 | 2025/05/14 | 2025/05/15 | 2025/05/16 | 2025/05/19 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2709 | 2755 | 2686 | 2685 | 2705 | 20 | | FU 05 | 2665 | 2697 | 2644 | 2639 | 2649 | 10 | | FU 09 | 2839 | 2893 | 2818 | 2824 | 2847 | 23 | | FU 01 - 05 | 44 | 58 | 42 | 46 | 56 | 10 | | FU 05 - 09 | - 174 | - 196 | - 174 | - 185 | - 198 | - 13 | | FU 09 - 01 | 130 | 138 | 132 | 139 | 142 | 3 | [3] Domestic LU Data | Variety | 2025/05/13 | 2025/05/14 | 2025/05/15 | 2025/05/16 | 2025/05/19 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3375 | 3451 | 3377 | 3367 | 3378 | 11 | | LU 05 | 3260 | 3401 | 3320 | 3313 | 3313 | 0 | | LU 09 | 3436 | 3521 | 3456 | 3438 | 3437 | - 1 | | LU 01 - 05 | 115 | 50 | 57 | 54 | 65 | 11 | | LU 05 - 09 | - 176 | - 120 | - 136 | - 125 | - 124 | 1 | | LU 09 - 01 | 61 | 70 | 79 | 71 | 59 | - 12 | [4]