永安期货有色早报-20250520

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For copper, the inventory destocking slope may continue to slow down, and attention should be paid to the consumption inflection point. The upward momentum of the monthly spread requires substantial shortages or a decline in absolute prices. [1] - For aluminum, the supply increases slightly, and the demand in May is not expected to decline significantly. There is still a supply - demand gap. The inventory is expected to be depleted gently from May to July. The aluminum price may rebound with destocking. The long - spread arbitrage can be held if the absolute price drops. [1] - For zinc, the zinc price fluctuates widely this week. Pay attention to the inflection point from destocking to stockpiling, and it is recommended to short at high prices. The long - spread arbitrage at home and abroad can be held. [3] - For nickel, the supply of pure nickel remains at a high level, the demand is weak, and the overseas nickel beans are slightly destocked. The opportunity to shrink the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can be continuously monitored. [4] - For stainless steel, the fundamentals remain weak, but there is macro - positive support. The short - spread arbitrage can be rolled over and held. [5] - For lead, the lead price fluctuates and rises this week. It is expected to fluctuate between 16,800 - 17,000 next week, and the supply is expected to decrease in May. [7] - For tin, the tin price fluctuates narrowly this week. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, and in the long - term, pay attention to short - selling opportunities. [8] - For industrial silicon, the short - term supply - demand double - reduction pattern is obvious, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the long - term. [9] - For lithium carbonate, the price oscillates and declines. In the short - term, the downstream demand enters a small peak season, but the price may still oscillate weakly in the long - term. [11] Summaries by Metals Copper - Market Situation: The domestic inventory shows an inflection point this week. The spot premium in North China remains weak, and the overall selling pressure is high. The demand has strong current reality but weak expectations. [1] - Data Changes: From May 13 - 19, the inventory decreased by 5,050 tons, and the LME C - 3M spread changed from 19.17 to 15.52. [1] Aluminum - Market Situation: The supply increases slightly, and the demand in May is not expected to decline significantly. The inventory is expected to be depleted gently from May to July. [1] - Data Changes: From May 13 - 19, the LME inventory decreased by 2,000 tons, and the LME C - 3M spread changed from 2.82 to 1.42. [1] Zinc - Market Situation: The zinc price fluctuates widely this week. The supply side has a slight decrease in smelting maintenance in May, and the demand side has general domestic demand elasticity and a slight recovery in European demand. [3] - Data Changes: From May 13 - 19, the LME inventory decreased by 3,400 tons, and the LME C - 3M spread changed from - 27 to - 32. [3] Nickel - Market Situation: The supply of pure nickel remains at a high level, the demand is weak, and the overseas nickel beans are slightly destocked. [4] - Data Changes: From May 13 - 19, the LME inventory increased by 6,786 tons, and the LME C - 3M spread changed from - 194 to - 202. [4] Stainless Steel - Market Situation: The supply may be reduced passively in May, the demand is mainly rigid, the cost of ferronickel is under pressure, and the inventory in Xifu area accumulates slightly. [5] - Data Changes: From May 13 - 19, the price of 201 cold - rolled coil decreased by 25. [5] Lead - Market Situation: The lead price fluctuates and rises this week. The supply side has tight raw materials, and the demand side has limited overall demand. [7] - Data Changes: From May 13 - 19, the LME inventory decreased by 6,825 tons, and the LME C - 3M spread changed from - 4 to - 18. [6] Tin - Market Situation: The tin price fluctuates narrowly this week. The supply side has some production cuts in China, and the demand side has limited elasticity. [8] - Data Changes: From May 13 - 19, the LME inventory increased by 5 tons, and the LME C - 3M spread changed from - 19 to - 56. [8] Industrial Silicon - Market Situation: The short - term supply - demand double - reduction pattern is obvious, and the price is at a low level. The social inventory begins to be depleted. [9] - Data Changes: From May 13 - 19, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 135, and the 421 Sichuan basis decreased by 85. [9] Lithium Carbonate - Market Situation: The price oscillates and declines. The production increases, the inventory accumulation slows down, and the downstream demand has mixed signals. [11] - Data Changes: From May 13 - 19, the SMM electric carbon price decreased by 800, and the SMM industrial carbon price decreased by 800. [11]