Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 6.5 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 49% from the current price of 4.4 HKD [7]. Core Views - Short-term performance fluctuations do not alter the long-term value of the company, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 expected to be 1.0 billion, 1.76 billion, and 2.6 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year change of -32%, +76%, and +48% respectively [4][5]. - The decline in urea prices significantly impacted the company's performance, with a 30% year-on-year drop in net profit for Q1 2025, despite a slight increase in revenue [2][3]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 5.85 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 1.7%, while net profit was 200 million RMB, down 30% year-on-year [2][3]. - Urea revenue was 1.54 billion RMB with a sales volume of 965,000 tons, maintaining year-on-year sales but with a price drop of 23% to 1,592 RMB/ton [3]. - Compound fertilizer revenue reached 1.56 billion RMB with a sales volume of 600,000 tons, showing a 14% increase in sales volume but a 4% price decline [3]. - Methanol revenue was 800 million RMB, with a sales volume of 354,000 tons, reflecting a 22% increase in sales volume and a 4% price increase [3]. Market Demand and Export Policy - The report anticipates a total demand for urea in China of 69 million tons in 2025, with agricultural demand at 43 million tons (3% growth) and industrial demand at 22 million tons (5% growth) [4]. - The export policy for urea has shifted from comprehensive restrictions to a more structured control, allowing for a total export quota of 4.25 million tons in 2025, which is expected to alleviate domestic supply issues [4].
中国心连心化肥：短期业绩波动不改长期价值-20250520