摩根大通：中国市场周刊-中美关税停火的影响

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral stance on CNH shorts and a revised lower target for USD/CNY, reflecting a cautious outlook on currency movements [9][15][21]. Core Insights - The recent US-China tariff ceasefire is seen as a positive development, potentially alleviating short-term growth pressures in China, although the overall market sentiment remains bearish [3][11][10]. - Despite the tariff rollback, local markets in China have not reacted positively, with investors still holding onto bearish positions, indicating a lack of confidence in sustained recovery [3][10][11]. - The report anticipates significant dividend payouts from Hong Kong-listed Chinese firms, estimated at approximately $60 billion from May to August, which could exert near-term pressure on CNY FX [14][21][19]. Summary by Sections Trade Recommendations - Current outright trades include a long position in 3-year CGBs, with a slight profit noted [2]. Market Sentiment - The report highlights a disconnect between the positive tariff news and the prevailing pessimism in the market, with bearish positions remaining largely intact [3][10][11]. - The sentiment on China-linked assets is described as downbeat, despite the positive implications of the tariff ceasefire [10][11]. Currency Outlook - The report suggests that the USD/CNH may face downward pressure but also highlights potential seasonal headwinds due to upcoming dividend payouts [14][21]. - The anticipated terminal rate for repo fixing is expected to settle above the current policy rate, indicating a conservative market pricing of the People's Bank of China's easing prospects [21][23]. Economic Indicators - The report notes that economists have revised China's GDP growth forecast for the year to 4.8%, up from 4.1%, reflecting a more optimistic view on economic recovery [15].