摩根士丹利：美国股票策略-随着贸易政策不确定性消退，波动性回落

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the equity market, particularly following the trade deal with China, which is seen as a catalyst for a more durable rally [4][5]. Core Insights - The reduction in the headline tariff rate on China from 145% to 30% is expected to materially reduce recession risk and support corporate confidence, leading to a positive surprise in equity markets [4][5]. - Earnings revisions breadth for the S&P 500 has improved, currently at -15%, up from -25% in mid-April, indicating a potential recovery in corporate earnings [12][24]. - The report highlights a shift in risk focus from growth to interest rates, with the 10-year yield hovering around 4.50%, which has implications for equity market valuations [33][34]. Summary by Sections Trade Policy and Market Volatility - The decline in trade policy uncertainty has led to a significant reduction in equity market volatility, suggesting that trade headwinds have likely peaked [6][8]. - The recent trade deal with China is viewed as a critical factor in stabilizing market conditions and reducing recession fears [5][6]. Earnings Revisions and Sector Performance - The report notes that cyclicals, particularly in the Industrials sector, are showing relative strength, while Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples are lagging [14][19]. - The S&P 500's earnings revisions breadth is expected to continue improving, which is necessary for breaking through the 6100 level in the near term [12][24]. Interest Rates and Economic Outlook - The 10-year Treasury yield's stability around 4.50% is a key focus, as breaks above this level have historically led to valuation compression [33][34]. - The report anticipates that the Federal Reserve will not cut rates this year, which could impact the equity market's ability to sustain upward momentum [34][33]. Sector Ratings and Recommendations - The report maintains a preference for large-cap, high-quality stocks, particularly in cyclical sectors, while remaining underweight in Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples [40][41]. - The performance of small-cap equities has been underwhelming compared to large-cap peers, reinforcing the late-cycle extension narrative [40][41].