Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Financial Products: A-share index has stable lower support and high upper breakthrough pressure; short - term treasury bonds may oscillate; precious metals show certain price patterns and trends; the rally of the container shipping index may slow down [2]. - Industrial Products: Industrial materials demand and inventory are deteriorating; iron ore, coke, and other black commodities have different price trends and market situations; various energy and chemical products have different supply - demand and price characteristics [2]. - Agricultural Products: Different agricultural products such as soybeans, hogs, and sugar have their own market trends and influencing factors [2]. - Special and New Energy Commodities: Glass market sentiment is pessimistic; rubber prices are affected by news; new energy products like lithium carbonate are in a downward trend [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial - Stock Index Futures: Index has stable lower support and high upper breakthrough pressure. A - shares open lower and oscillate with trading volume maintaining at the trillion - level. Suggest selling put options on the support level of IF2506 to earn premiums, or going long on September IM contracts on pullbacks and selling call options with an exercise price of 6400 on September contracts for covered strategies [2]. - Treasury Bonds: Short - term treasury bonds may oscillate, waiting for fundamental guidance. The 10 - year treasury bond yield may fluctuate between 1.6% - 1.7%, and the 30 - year treasury bond yield may fluctuate between 1.85% - 1.95%. It is recommended to wait and see and focus on high - frequency economic data and liquidity dynamics [2]. - Precious Metals: Gold forms a "double - top" pattern and oscillates narrowly between 3200 - 3300 US dollars (750 - 770 yuan); silver fluctuates between 32 - 33.5 US dollars (8000 - 8350 yuan). The sold out - of - the - money gold call options can be held; Moody's downgrades the US credit rating, causing declines in the US stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets and a slight increase in precious metals [2]. - Container Shipping Index (European Line): The emotional release is sufficient, and the upward momentum may slow down. Consider 8 - 10, 6 - 10 positive spreads, and wait and see for unilateral operations [2]. Industrial - Steel: Industrial materials demand and inventory are deteriorating. Pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. Iron ore oscillates between 700 - 745. Coke and coking coal prices are in a downward phase. Suggest long - hot - rolled steel and short - coke or short - coking coal strategies [2]. - Energy and Chemicals: Different products have different trends. For example, PX continues to have limited upward momentum; PTA oscillates at a high level between 4600 - 5000; short - fiber prices follow raw materials; ethanol's supply - demand structure improves; styrene has short - term oscillation and medium - term bearishness [2]. Agricultural - Different agricultural products have various market situations. For example, US soybeans oscillate, hogs' futures and spot prices oscillate weakly in the short term, and sugar has positive data from Brazil in late April [2]. Special and New Energy - Special Commodities: Glass market sentiment is pessimistic, and attention is paid to whether it can break through the 1000 - point level; rubber prices rise slightly due to storage news and can be lightly shorted at the upper end of the 14500 - 15500 range [2]. - New Energy Commodities: Lithium carbonate maintains a downward trend, with the main contract referring to 60,000 - 63,000 yuan; polysilicon futures oscillate with near - term strength and long - term weakness [2].
广发期货日评-20250520
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-05-20 05:59