原木期货日报-20250520

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Log Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: May 20, 2025 [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 3: Core View - After May, log demand will enter the traditional off - season, with expected reduced shipments in the coming weeks. New Zealand's shipments will seasonally decrease, and the current FOB price continues to decline, maintaining a weak - balanced fundamental situation. Supply arrivals are expected to significantly decrease this week, and the market is expected to fluctuate [3][4] Group 4: Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices: Log 2507 remained at 783 yuan/m³, Log 2509 decreased by 0.5 yuan to 794 yuan/m³ (-0.06%), and Log 2511 decreased by 0.5 yuan to 797 yuan/m³ (-0.06%) [2] - Spot prices: Some radiation pine prices in Rizhao Port decreased, with the 3.9A small, medium, and large radiation pine down - 1.37%, - 1.32%, and - 3.49% respectively. Some prices in Taicang Port and Rizhao Port's spruce 11.8 remained unchanged [2] - FOB prices: The CFR price of 4 - meter medium A radiation pine and 11.8 - meter spruce remained unchanged [2] - Import costs: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate increased slightly, and the import theoretical cost increased by 2.06 yuan to 781.01 yuan [2] Group 5: Supply - Monthly supply: Port shipments in April were 200.3 million m³, a 24.17% increase from March. The number of ships in the rock port increased by 13.79% [2] - Weekly supply: This week's arrivals are expected to significantly decrease, and the inventory decreased by 20,000 m³ to 341 million m³ as of May 16 [3] Group 6: Demand - Weekly demand: The average daily log出库 volume decreased by 0.01 million m³ to 6.14 million m³ as of May 16 [3] Group 7: Inventory - Weekly inventory: As of May 16, the total inventory of national coniferous logs was 341 million m³, a 0.58% decrease from the previous period [3]