《有色》日报-20250520

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - Lithium Carbonate: The market sentiment remains pessimistic, with the futures market weak. Supply pressure is evident due to increased production and imports, while demand is relatively flat. The short - term trend is expected to be weak, with the main contract price likely to test the 60,000 yuan level, but excessive bearishness is not recommended [1]. - Nickel: The macro - sentiment has improved, and the cost provides strong support. However, the medium - term supply is expected to be loose, restricting the upside. The short - term market is expected to be volatile, with the main contract price ranging from 122,000 to 128,000 yuan [3]. - Stainless Steel: The market is in a state of weak shock. The supply is in an over - capacity situation, and the demand is slowly recovering. The inventory pressure has slightly eased. The short - term market is expected to be volatile, with the main contract price ranging from 12,600 to 13,200 yuan [4]. - Tin: The macro - sentiment may drive the price to rebound, but considering the supply recovery and weak demand expectations, a short - selling strategy can be attempted in the 265,000 - 270,000 yuan range, with attention paid to the supply recovery [5]. - Aluminum Oxide: The spot market is expected to remain tight in the short term, with prices likely to be strong and volatile. Attention should be paid to the production resumption of enterprises [6]. - Aluminum: The macro - factors provide support, and low inventory strengthens price resilience. However, the demand is facing seasonal and trade uncertainties, limiting the upside. The price is expected to range from 19,500 to 21,000 yuan [6]. - Zinc: Short - term prices may be supported by tariff easing, but the long - term supply is in a loose cycle. The price may maintain a high - level shock or decline, depending on supply and demand [8]. - Copper: The market presents a "strong reality + weak expectation" situation. The short - term price is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to the sustainability of the strong fundamentals after May and the tariff negotiation rhythm [11]. 3. Summary by Directory Lithium Carbonate - Price and Basis: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate均价 dropped 1.24% to 63,700 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade dropped 1.27% to 62,050 yuan/ton. The basis of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased 200% to 720 yuan/ton [1]. - Fundamental Data: In April, lithium carbonate production decreased 6.65% to 73,810 tons, while demand increased 3.02% to 89,627 tons. In March, imports increased 47.03% to 18,125 tons, and exports decreased 47.25% to 220 tons [1]. Nickel - Price and Basis: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel均价 dropped 0.89% to 125,000 yuan/ton. The import loss increased 7.62% to - 3,910 yuan/ton [3]. - Cost of Electrolytic Nickel Production: The cost of integrated MHP production of electrolytic nickel decreased 0.49% to 126,132 yuan/ton, while the cost of integrated high - grade nickel matte production increased 1.05% to 133,478 yuan/ton [3]. - Supply and Inventory: China's refined nickel production increased 6.08% to 36,300 tons in April, and imports decreased 68.84% to 8,164 tons. SHFE inventory decreased 3.02% to 27,808 tons [3]. Stainless Steel - Price and Basis: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 13,200 yuan/ton, and the basis increased 3.70% to 420 yuan/ton [4]. - Raw Material Prices: The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased 0.27% to 944 yuan/nickel point [4]. - Fundamental Data: In April, China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production increased 11.37% to 344.01 million tons, and exports increased 70.98% to 47.06 million tons [4]. Tin - Spot Price and Basis: SMM 1 tin均价 dropped 0.15% to 265,100 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 premium increased 35.43% to - 82 dollars/ton [5]. - Fundamental Data (Monthly): In March, tin ore imports decreased 4.83% to 8,323 tons, and SMM refined tin production increased 8.75% to 15,280 tons [5]. - Inventory Changes: SHEF inventory decreased 3.46% to 8,417 tons, and social inventory decreased 2.30% to 9,959 tons [5]. Aluminum - Price and Spread: SMM A00 aluminum均价 dropped 0.20% to 20,270 yuan/ton. The import loss increased 45.3 yuan/ton to - 1,311 yuan/ton [6]. - Fundamental Data: In April, alumina production decreased 6.17% to 708.35 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased 2.91% to 360.60 million tons [6]. - Inventory: China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased 2.66% to 58.50 million tons, and LME inventory decreased 0.51% to 39.3 million tons [6]. Zinc - Price and Spread: SMM 0 zinc ingot均价 dropped 0.53% to 22,650 yuan/ton. The import loss decreased 79.77 yuan/ton to - 386 yuan/ton [8]. - Fundamental Data: In April, refined zinc production increased 0.31% to 50.98 million tons. In March, imports increased 9.47% to 5.78 million tons, and exports decreased 77.37% to 0.02 million tons [8]. - Inventory: China's zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased 1.99% to 8.38 million tons, and LME inventory decreased 2.07% to 16.1 million tons [8]. Copper - Price and Basis: SMM 1 electrolytic copper均价 dropped 0.91% to 78,110 yuan/ton. The import loss decreased 114.59 yuan/ton to - 158 yuan/ton [11]. - Fundamental Data: In April, electrolytic copper production increased 0.32% to 112.57 million tons. In March, imports increased 15.24% to 30.88 million tons [11]. - Inventory: Domestic social inventory increased 13.08% to 13.92 million tons, and SHFE inventory increased 34.00% to 10.81 million tons [11].