瑞达期货沪铜产业日报-20250520

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai Copper main contract fluctuated and declined, with decreasing open interest, spot premium, and strengthening basis. Internationally, Fed officials have different views on interest - rate cuts and economic situations. Domestically, the economy showed stable growth in April. Fundamentally, the global supply of copper concentrates remains tight, while domestic copper port inventories are increasing. Supply is growing steadily due to sufficient domestic raw materials and favorable copper prices. Demand is limited as copper prices are high and downstream processing plants are cautious in purchasing. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai Copper may show a slight increase in supply, a slowdown in demand, and a small accumulation of industry inventory. In the options market, the sentiment is bearish, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. The technical indicator 60 - minute MACD shows the double - line below the 0 - axis with an expanding green column. The operation suggestion is to go long on dips with a light position and control the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Copper futures main contract was 77,540 yuan/ton, down 280 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price was 9,470 dollars/ton, down 53.5 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread was 290 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the open interest of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 166,088 lots, down 5,147 lots. The top 20 long positions in Shanghai Copper futures were 11,331 lots, up 1,635 lots. The LME copper inventory was 174,325 tons, down 5,050 tons; the SHFE cathode copper inventory was 108,142 tons, up 27,437 tons; the SHFE cathode copper warrant was 45,738 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price was 78,340 yuan/ton, up 230 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price was 78,290 yuan/ton, up 205 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 110 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper was 95 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars. The basis of the CU main contract was 800 yuan/ton, up 510 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread was 15.52 dollars/ton, down 15.93 dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates in April was 292.44 million tons, up 53.13 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters was - 43.05 dollars/kiloton, up 0.06 dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi was 68,630 yuan/metal ton, up 240 yuan; in Yunnan, it was 69,330 yuan/metal ton, up 240 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the South was 700 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the North, it was 750 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper in April was 125.40 million tons, up 0.60 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 440,000 tons, down 30,000 tons. The social inventory of copper was 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai was 55,090 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan; the price of 2 copper in Shanghai was 66,600 yuan/ton, down 550 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 490 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products in April was 208.10 million tons (no comparison data). The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure was 956.22 billion yuan, up 520.01 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 27,729.57 billion yuan, up 7,825.40 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,167,000,000 pieces, down 30,199,900 pieces [2] 3.6 Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Copper was 11.02%, down 0.03%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 24.24%, down 0.09%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money option was 13.76%, down 0.0141%; the call - put ratio of at - the - money options was 0.94, up 0.0220 [2] 3.7 Industry News - In April, China's economy grew steadily. The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.1% year - on - year, and the social consumer goods retail总额 increased by 5.1%. The national urban surveyed unemployment rate in April was 5.1%, down 0.1 percentage points. The real estate development investment from January to April decreased by 10.3% year - on - year. In April, new home prices in first - and second - tier cities were flat month - on - month, and slightly decreased in third - tier cities. A new round of deposit - rate cuts is about to take place. The EU has lowered its economic growth forecast for Europe. Fed officials have different statements on interest - rate cuts and economic situations. In April 2025, China's alumina exports increased significantly while imports decreased sharply [2]